Modeling changes in land use and land cover on sediment yield using Cellular Automata and Markov Chain (CA-Markov) (Case study: A part of Chaloos River Watershed)

Document Type : Research

Authors

1 Master's degree in environment from Gorgan University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources

2 Associate Professor of Department of Environment, Gorgan University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources

3 Associate Professor of Environment Department, Gorgan University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources

4 Assistant professor of watershed management department of Yasouj University

Abstract

One of the consequences and envirinmental problem of changes in land use and land cover is soil erosion that threaten soil and water resources of watershed seriously.Therefore it is necessary that the spatial dimensions of land use and land cover are identified regularly so that the policy makers and researched able to take the necessary decisions. In recent years, due to easy access to satellite imagery and capabilities of GIS, land use and land cover changes modeling and prediction is very common. This study has been done to investigate the land use and land cover changes in Chaloos river watershed in Mazandaran province using CA-Markov and modeling of these changes on sediment yield. Estimation of erosion and sediment has been done using the results of land use and land cover changes and EPM model. Results showed that the rate of forest changes in the last 20 years and coming 20 years are 5100 and 4200 respectively. Results of logistic regression with Pseudo R2 0.3 and ROC about 0.9 represents the relative agreement of the model with actual changes and the appropriate ability of the model for estimating changes in forest area in last 20 years. Results about simulation of land cover map in 2001 and 2007 showed that CA-Markov has a high ability and capability in land cover changes modeling which in this study the accuracy of resulting land cover map was 80%. The results also show that the rate of erosion in 1987, 2001 and 2007 are 0.36, 0.38 and 0.39 respectively. It is observed that the trend of erosion is increasingly, but since beside the erosion rate, the temperature and rainfall also affects erosion, the rate of specific erosion in these years are 400.9, 400.9 and 363.6 cubic meter per square kilometer per year respectively, hence the the year of 2007 with further erosion rate has less specific erosion because the rainfall is less.

Keywords

Watershed Management Research
Volume 28, Issue 3 - Serial Number 108
September 2015
Pages 111-128

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History

  • Receive Date: 28 July 2014
  • Revise Date: 21 July 2015
  • Accept Date: 08 August 2015

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