Evaluation of Climate Change in the Tashk River Basin with Emphasis on the Modeling and Scenario Making

Document Type : Research

Authors

1 Ph.D. student in Department of Environmental Management, North Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran

2 Assistant Professor, Department of Environmental Management, North Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran

3 Associate Professor, Department of Hydrobiology, Fars Agricultural and Natural Resources Research and Education Center, Agricultural Research, Education and Extension Organization, Shiraz, Iran

Abstract

Climate change in lakes and reservoirs is one of the most critical issues facing human society today. Rising temperatures, melting ice in the North Pole, and the disappearance of ice sheets in Antarctica are some of the effects of climate change on earth. The present study intends to evaluate the trend of climate parameter changes in Abadeh Tashk station in Tashk catchment area using the Mann-Kendall test and using canESM2 output, one of the paired climate change models 1CMIP5 based on RCP 2.6 scenarios. And RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 to evaluate temperature changes in the period 1990-2020-2100 temperature changes in Abadeh Tashk station. The results showed that the decreasing trend of precipitation is significant but the temperature and evaporation trends are not significant. Scenario results showed that the average maximum temperature in the three scenarios for the study period will increase. Given that the general trend of rising temperatures is on the rise, it can be said that the trend of climate change in the basin is serious.

Keywords

References

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History

  • Receive Date: 29 June 2021
  • Revise Date: 15 September 2021
  • Accept Date: 19 October 2021

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