ارزیابی ارتباط روند برخی از عوامل آب‌و‌هوایی بر رواناب سطحی در حوزه های آبخیز سواحل جنوبی ایران

نوع مقاله : پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشگاه هرمزگان

2 گروه مهندسی منابع طبیعی، دانشکده کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه هرمزگان

3 دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی گرگان

4 دانشگاه هرمزگان-دانشکده کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی-گروه مرتع و آبخیزداری

چکیده

تغییرات اقلیم که به تغییر در چرخه‌ی آب‌شناسی انجامیده است، بر منابع آب‌های سطحی و زیرزمینی تأثیر می‌گذارد. مؤثرترین روش برای درک بهتر تغییرات آب‌شناسی متأثر از تغییر اقلیم، تحلیل روند گروه‌های زمانی آب‌شناسی جریان رود‌‌هااست. در این پژوهش، روند عامل‌های آب‌دهی جریان رودها، دماهای کمینه و بیشینه، تبخیر، مقدار بارش، شدت و تداوم بارش، به‌صورت فصلی و سالانه و به تفکیک هر زیرحوزه بررسی شد. در این تحقیق، از روش‌های آمار پارامتری (تحلیل رگرسیون) و ناپارامتری شامل اسپیرمن، من-کندال و من-کندال اصلاح‌شده، در دو مقیاس زمانی سالانه و فصلی استفاده شد. طول دوره‌ی آماری 31 سال، از سال آبی 1362–1361 تا سال 93–1392 بود و تعداد 22 زیرحوزه، براساس تفکیک حوزه‌ی آبخیز درجه‌ی 3 وزارت نیرو، در حوزه‌های آبخیز سواحل جنوبی خلیج‌فارس و دریای عمان برگزیده شدند. نتایج نشان داد که در بیش از 50% از ایستگا‌ه‌ها، رواناب روند کاهشی دارد. این کاهش عمدتاً در ایستگاه‌های بخش مرکزی، حوزه‌ی آبخیز بندر-سدیج و کل-مهران دیده می‌شود. در مقابل، در بیش از 90% از ایستگاه‌ها، روند شدت بارش افزایشی و مدت بارش کاهشی است. دما نیز روند افزایشی، و تبخیر روند کاهشی دارد. بنابراین، یکی از عوامل تأثیرگذار بر آب‌دهی جریان تغییر الگوی بارش، یعنی کاهش تداوم بارش و افزایش شدت آن است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Assessment of the Relations between the Trends of Climatic Factors and River Flow in Southern Coastal Watersheds, Iran

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mehdi Moradi 1
  • Ommolbanin Bazrafshan 2
  • Abdolreza Bahreman 3
  • Yahya Esmaelpour 4
1 university of hormozgan
2 University of Hormozgan
3 Gorgan university
4 Hormozgan
چکیده [English]

Climate change will lead to an intensification of the global hydrological cycle and can have major impacts on regional water resources, affecting both ground and surface water supplies. A better understanding of hydrological changes associated with climate change can be achieved by analyzing the temporal trends in river discharge time series. We used the parametric test (regression analysis) and non-parametric Spearman's rho, Mann- Kendal and TFPW Mann- Kendal approaches to evaluate annual and seasonal trends in river flow data from 22 sub basins (based on the classification of the Ministry of Power) located in the southern regions of Iran over a 31-year period spanning the hydrological years 1981–1982 to 2001–2013. The data used include pan evaporation, discharge, minimum and maximum air temperatures, depth, intensity and duration of rainfall at each sub basin. Results showed that in more than 50% of the hydrometric stations, runoff had a decreasing trend. This trend was apparent in the central watershed consisting of Bandar-Sedij and Kol-Mehran sub basins. Conversely, more than 90% of the stations, duration and intensity rainfall had decreasing and increasing trends, respectively. Furthermore, minimum and maximum air temperature trend had an increasing while evaporation had a decreasing trend. In conclusion, factors influencing the declining discharge trend can be changed by changing the rainfall pattern, decreasing the rainfall duration and increasing its intensity.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • trend analysis
  • duration and intensity of rainfall
  • southern coastal watersheds
  • runoff

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سابقه مقاله

  • تاریخ دریافت: 24 دی 1396
  • تاریخ بازنگری: 21 اردیبهشت 1397
  • تاریخ پذیرش: 02 مرداد 1397

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