تأثیر حالت‌های احتمالی تغییر کاربری/پوشش زمین بر مؤلفه‌های سیمای سرزمین در آبخیز تالار

نوع مقاله : پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری علوم و مهندسی آبخیزداری، دانشکده منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس

2 دانشیار گروه مهندسی آبخیزداری، دانشکده منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس

3 استادیار گروه محیط زیست، دانشکده‌ی منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس

4 استادیار گروه مهندسی آبخیزداری، دانشکده منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس

چکیده

پژوهش حاضر با هدف بررسی و پیش‌بینی تغییرات سنجه‌های سیمای سرزمین در آبخیز تالار در استان مازندران برنامه‌ریزی شده است. نقشه‌های کاربری/پوشش زمین در سال‌های 1368، 1379 و 1393 با به‌کارگیری الگوریتم ماشین بردار پشتیبان تهیه و با استفاده از مدل­ساز تغییر سرزمین در حالت‌های مختلف تغییر کاربری/پوشش برای سال 1409 پیش‌بینی شد. توان انتقال و پیش‎‌بینی تغییرات به‌ترتیب با استفاده از روش‌های پرسپترون چندلایه و زنجیره­ی مارکوف مدل­سازی شد. سنجه‌های سیمای سرزمین شامل درصد پوشش سیمای سرزمین، تعداد لکه، تراکم لبه، تراکم لکه، شاخص بزرگ‌ترین لکه، شاخص شکل سیما، شاخص پراکندگی و مجاورت و نسبت چولیدگی لبه در سال‌های بررسی‌شده، وحالت‌های ممکن تغییر کاربری/پوشش زمین با استفاده از نرم‌افزار Fragstats استخراج و تغییرات آن بررسی شد. نتایج نشان داد که روند تغییرات سنجه‌های درصد پوشش سیمای سرزمین، تعداد لکه، تراکم لبه، تراکم لکه، شاخص بزرگ‌ترین لکه، و شاخص شکل سیما در سال‌های بررسی‌شده در کاربری‌های جنگل و مرتع کاهشی، و در سایر کاربری‌ها افزایشی است. مهم‌‌ترین عوامل مؤثر بر تغییر کاربری/پوشش در حالت‌های بررسی‌شده ارتفاع، فاصله از زمین‌های جنگلی و مرتعی و احتمال تجربی برای تغییر شناخته شد. میانگین افزایش تعداد لکه در حالت‌های تداوم روند فعلی تغییر کاربری، جنگل‌زدایی و توسعه­ی زمین‌های مسکونی به‌ترتیب 43/2، 8/9 و 7/9% بود. برای بهبود وضعیت سلامت آبخیز تالار پیشنهاد می‌شود مناطقِ مختلفِ نیازمند احیا با توجه تغییرات کاربری/پوشش ناصحیح اولویت‌بندی شوند، و در مناطقی که تغییر در حالت‌های تغییر کاربری/پوشش زمین در آن‌ها پیش‌بینی شد، با درنظرگرفتن شرایط آمایش سرزمین اقدام‌های پیش‌گیرانه و حفاظتی تعیین و انجام شود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Effects of Land Use/Land Cover Change Scenarios on Landscape Metrics on the Talar Watershed

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mohsen Zabihi 1
  • Hamid Reza Moradi 2
  • Mehdi Gholamalifard 3
  • Abdulvahed Khaledi Darvishan 4
1 PhD Candidate, Department of Watershed Management Engineering, Faculty of Natural Resources, Tarbiat Modarres University, Iran
2 Associate Professor, Department of Watershed Management Engineering, Faculty of Natural Resources, Tarbiat Modarres University, Iran
3 Assistant Professor, Department of the Environment Sciences, Faculty of Natural Resources, Tarbiat Modares University, Iran
4 Assistant Professor, Department of Watershed Management Engineering, Faculty of Natural Resources, Tarbiat Modarres University, Iran
چکیده [English]

The present study was planned to investigate and predict the landscape metrics on the Talar Watershed, the Province of Mazandaran. Land use/land cover (LULC) maps were produced using the support vector machine (SVM) algorithm for the years 1989, 2000, and 2014. The land change modeler (LCM) was applied for the prediction of LULC maps in different LULC change scenarios for 2030. Multi-layer Perceptron and the Markov chain methods were conducted for transition potential modelling and change prediction, respectively. Landscape metrics including the percentage of landscape (PLAND), the number of patches (NP), the edge density (ED), the patch density (PD), the largest patch index (LPI), the landscape shape index (LPI), the interspersion and juxtaposition index (IJI), and the perimeter-area fractal dimension (PAFRAC) were investigated and extracted using the Fragstats software in the studied years and the LULC change scenarios. Results demonstrated that the changes in the trend of PLAND, NP, ED, PD, LPI, and LSI were decreasing, and increasing in other land use systems during the considered years in forest, rangeland and another LULCs, respectively. Elevation, distance from forest, distance from rangeland areas, and the empirical likelihood of change were identified as the most important factors influencing the LULC change in the studied scenarios. Also, the average increase of NP was calculated at 43.2, 8.9, and 7.9 percent in continuing the current LULC change, deforestation, and residential area development scenarios, respectively. Prioritization of different areas that require restoration with respect to the incorrect LULC changes, and determination and implementation of the precautionary and protective measures in the areas with change prediction based on the studied LULC change scenarios, as well as considering land use planning conditions to improve the health of Talar Watershed by managers and planners are recommended.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Land use/land cover prediction
  • landscape management
  • LCM
  • sustainable development
  • the Province of Mazandaran

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سابقه مقاله

  • تاریخ دریافت: 16 مهر 1397
  • تاریخ بازنگری: 27 آبان 1397
  • تاریخ پذیرش: 06 آذر 1397

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