ارزیابی اثر تغییر کاربری زمین بر اندازه‌ی روان‌آب با زنجیره‌ی مارکوف و سلول‌های خودکار در آبخیز بیدگل، استان فارس

نوع مقاله : پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجو دکتری تخصصی علوم و مهندسی آبخیزداری، گروه احیا مناطق خشک و کوهستانی، دانشکده منابع طبیعی دانشگاه تهران

2 دانشیار گروه احیا مناطق خشک و کوهستانی، دانشکده منابع طبیعی دانشگاه تهران

3 استاد گروه احیا مناطق خشک و کوهستانی، دانشکده منابع طبیعی دانشگاه تهران

چکیده

این پژوهش برای پیش‌بینی‌کردن تغییر کاربری زمین و تاثیر آن بر اندازه‌ی روان‌آب آبخیز بیدگل استان فارس در چشم‌انداز سال 1411 انجام ‌شد. مدل آب‌شناسی سوات (ابزار ارزیابی خاک و آب) با داده‌های آبی-اقلیمی سال‌های 1383 تا 1392 برمبنای الگوریتم SUFI-2 واسنجی، و با داده‌های 1393 تا 1397 اعتبار‌سنجی کرده‌شد. سنجه‌‌های آماری ضریب نش– ساتکلیف، ضریب تبیین، ضریب تغییر مکان جانبی و ضریب رفتار در مرحله­ی واسنجی به‌ترتیب 0/74، 0/77، 0/8، 0/83 و برای مرحله­ی اعتبار‌سنجی به‌ترتیب  ‌0/68، 0/66، 0/72 و 1/3 به­دست ‌آورده شد. تصویرهای سال‌های 1383 و 1397 ماهواره‌ی لندست ‌پردازش‌‌ و به شش رده‌ی کاربری رده‌بندی شد. با روش زنجیره‌ی مارکوف و سلول‌های خودکار و برپایه‌ی نقشه‌ی کاربری زمین سال‌های 1383 و 1397، نقشه‌ی پیش‌بینی کاربری زمین سال 1411 تهیه‌شد. نقشه‌های کاربری زمین به مدل واسنجی‌شده‌ی‌ سوات وارد و تاثیر تغییر‌ کاربری زمین در دوره‌ی‌ 1397 تا 1411 بر اندازه‌ی روان‌آب حوزه پیش‌بینی کرده شد. نتایج نشان‌داد که بیش‌ترین تغییر کاربری در تبدیل مرتع به زمین کشاورزی، و بیش‌ترین درصد تغییر در کاربری مسکونی بود. در پاسخ به این تغییر، در ﺳـﺎل 1411 ﻣﻘﺪار ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺳﺎﻻﻧﻪ‌ی روان‌آب ﺳﻄﺤﻲ 19% کاهش نسبت به ﺳـﺎل 1397 نشان‌ می‌دهد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

An Assessment of the Effect of Land Use Change on the Runoff Using the Markov Chain and Cellular Automata in the Bidgol Watershed, the Province of Fars

نویسندگان [English]

  • Hadi Masoomi 1
  • Arash Malekian 2
  • Ali Salajegheh 3
  • Aliakbar Nazari Samani 2
1 PhD., Student, Department of Reclamation of Arid and Mountainous Regions, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Iran
2 Associate Professor, Department of Reclamation of Arid and Mountainous Regions, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Iran
3 Professor, Department of Reclamation of Arid and Mountainous Regions, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

The present study was conducted to predict land use change and its impact on runoff of the Bidgol Watershed in the Fars province in 2032. The SWAT hydrological model was first calibrated using the hydrometeorological collected data during the 2004 to 2013 period based on the SUFI-2 algorithm and validated using the 2014 to 2018 data. The values of the statistical parameters of the Nash – Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient (NS), coefficient of determination (R2), deflection amplification factor (P-factor) and the response modification factor (R-factor) at the calibration stage were 0.74, 0.77, 0.8, 0.83, respectively while for the validation stage, the obtained values were 0.68, 0.66, 0.72 and 1.3, respectively. Then Landsat satellite images of 2004 and 2018 were used and following the necessary steps, the images were classified into six main land use classes. Using the Markov Chain method and Cellular Automata based on the land use maps of 2004 and 2018, the land use forecasting map of 2032 was prepared. The land use maps were imported into the SWAT calibrated model and the impact of land use change from 2018 to 2032 on the basin runoff was predicted. The results showed that the highest change of land use will be related to the conversion of rangelands into agricultural land, and the highest percentage of change will be related to the residential land use. In response to these changes, the annual average runoff value of 2032 represents a 19% decrease as compared to that of 2018.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Bidgol watershed
  • Land use
  • Markov chain
  • SWAT model

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  • تاریخ دریافت: 29 تیر 1398
  • تاریخ بازنگری: 07 آذر 1398
  • تاریخ پذیرش: 26 آذر 1398

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