پیش بینی اثر حالت‌های ممکن مدیریت پوشش گیاهی بر حجم رواناب و آلاینده های رودخانه‌یی با مدل L-THIA در آبخیز حبله رود

نوع مقاله : پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار بخش تحقیقات حفاظت خاک و آبخیزداری، مرکز تحقیقات و آموزش کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی استان لرستان، سازمان تحقیقات، آموزش و ترویج کشاورزی، خرم آباد، ایران

2 استاد گروه آبخیزداری، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی گرگان

3 دانشیار گروه آبخیزداری، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی گرگان

4 استادیار بخش تحقیقات حفاظت خاک و آبخیزداری، مرکز تحقیقات و آموزش کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی استان سمنان، سازمان تحقیقات، آموزش و ترویج کشاورزی، سمنان، ایران

چکیده

تغییر پوشش­ گیاهی یکی از عامل‌های مهم در تغییر کمی و کیفی جریان آب‌شناسی است. در این تحقیق با مدل ارزیابی اثر آب­شناختی بلندمدت اثر حالت‌های ممکن مدیریت پوشش­ گیاهی بر حجم روان­آب سالانه و آلاینده­ های آب آبخیز حبله ­رود پیش­ بینی کرده شد. مدل با نقشه ­های کاربری و نقشه­ گروه­های آب‌شناسی خاک منطقه اجرا شد. نتیجه‌ی ارزیابی کارآیی مدل نشان­ دهنده‌ی کارآیی مناسب در تراز 5% است. بی‌قطعیتی مدل با روش بوت­استرپ بررسی شد. کم‌ترین و بیش‌ترین بی‌قطعیتی در فراسنج‌های نیترات، نیتریت و حجم روان­آب به‌ترتیب با ضریب تغییر 0/15 و 0/26 بود. به‌جز وضع موجود، فعالیت­های جنگل‌کاری، بذرپاشی، بذرکاری، کپه­ کاری، قرق مرتع، تاغ­ کاری، احداث باغ، درخت­کاری و علوفه­ کاری نیز ارزیابی کرده شد. نتیجه‌ی تجزیه و تحلیل نشان داد که با اعمال‌کردن بذرپاشی مرتع، حجم روان­آب سالانه از 301/07 میلیون مترمکعب برای کاربری فعلی حوزه به 247/92 میلیون مترمکعب کاهش یافته است. کل نیترات، نیتریت و فسفر خروجی به ترتیب از 214/2 و 92/4 تن در شرایط کاربری فعلی به 154/2 و 80/3 تن کاهش یافته است. نتیجه‌ی ارزیابی نشان­ دهنده‌ی کارآیی مناسب این مدل برای پیش ­بینی‌کردن اثر حالت‌های ممکن تغییر­کاربری در این آبخیز است. اجرای فعالیت­های مدیریتی پوشش ­گیاهی به کاهش حجم روان­آب و کاهش آلاینده ­های آب در آبخیز حبله ­رود منجر خواهد شد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Predicting the Impacts of Land Cover Management Scenarios on the Run-off Volume and River Pollutants Using the L-THIA Model for the Hablehrud basin

نویسندگان [English]

  • Ebrahim Karimi Sangchini 1
  • Majid Ownegh 2
  • Amir Sadoddin 3
  • Ebrahim Yousefi Mobarhan 4
1 Assistant Professor, Soil Conservation and Watershed Management Research Department, Lorestan Agricultural and Natural Resources Research and Education Center, AREEO, Khorramabad, Iran
2 Professor of Watershed Management Department, Gorgan University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources
3 Associate Professor of Watershed Management Department, Gorgan University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources
4 Assistant Professor, Soil Conservation and Watershed Management Research Department, Semnan Agricultural and Natural Resources Research and Education Center, AREEO, Semnan, Iran
چکیده [English]

Land cover change is an important factor in terms of its impacts on altering the quantity and quality of the flow regimes. The Long-term Hydrologic Impact Assessment model was used to predict the impacts of land cover management scenarios on run-off volume and water pollutants on the Hablehrud Basin. Land-use and soil hydrologic group layers were used in running the model. Evaluation of the results indicated a satisfactory performance at the 5% level of significance. Additionally, the model uncertainty analysis was conducted using the bootstrap method. Nitrate, nitrite and run-off volume parameters had the minimum and maximum uncertainty levels with respect to the coefficient of variation at 0.15 and 0.26, respectively. In addition to the current condition, agroforestry, seeding, drill seeding, hill-drop planting, grazing exclusion, haloxylon plantation, orchard stabilization, tree plantation and forage growing actions were evaluated. By applying the seeding scenario, the annual runoff volume would drop from 301.07 million cubic meters per year for the current land use in the watershed to 247.92 million cubic meters per year. Given the seeding scenario, the total amounts of nitrates, nitrite and phosphorus in the watershed would also decrease from 214.17 and 92.4 ton per year for the current land cover to 154.2 and 80.3 ton per year, respectively. Evaluation of the results indicates the satisfactory performance of the model to predict the effects of land-use change scenarios in this area. Implementing the land cover management actions leads to a reduction in the run-off volume as well as the water pollutants on the Hablerud Basin.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Land cover management scenarios
  • L-THIA model
  • run-off volume
  • The Hablehrud Basin
  • water pollutants

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سابقه مقاله

  • تاریخ دریافت: 30 مرداد 1398
  • تاریخ بازنگری: 20 آبان 1398
  • تاریخ پذیرش: 26 آذر 1398

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