تحلیل عامل‌های مؤثر بر شدت سیل خیزی در ایران

کاظمی, رحیم; پرهمت, جهانگیر

doi:10.22092/wmej.2020.342597.1330

تحلیل عامل‌های مؤثر بر شدت سیل خیزی در ایران

نوع مقاله : پژوهشی

نویسندگان

¹ استادیار پژوهشکده‌‌ی حفاظت خاک و آبخیزداری، سازمان تحقیقات، آموزش و ترویج کشاورزی، تهران، ایران

² استاد پژوهشکده‌ی‌ حفاظت خاک و آبخیزداری، سازمان تحقیقات، آموزش و ترویج کشاورزی، تهران، ایران

10.22092/wmej.2020.342597.1330

چکیده

شناخت پدیده‌ی سیل و عامل‌های مؤثر بر آن پیشنیاز مهار و مدیریت‌کردن آن است. این پدیده که متأثر از عامل‌های آب‌شناسی، اقلیمی و گیتاشناسی آبخیز است همواره یکی از موضوع‌های مهم در آب‌شناسی بوده است. در این پژوهش ابتدا با روی همگذاشتن نقشهی اقلیم کشور بر اساس نظام طبقهبندی دومارتن با مرز حوزهها، آبخیزهای هر منطقهی اقلیمی تفکیک کرده و 314 ایستگاه آبسنجی با داده‌های مناسب از دورهی مشترک داده‌برداری 1355-1390 در شش منطقهی اقلیمی انتخاب شد. آب‌دهی بیشینه‌‌ی لحظهیی با دوره‌ی بازگشت50 ساله محاسبه شد. پانزده سنجه‌ی آب‌شناسی، اقلیمی، و گیتاشناسی مؤثر بر شدت سیلخیزی شامل ارتفاع متوسط، مساحت حوزه، ضریب گراویلیوس، شیب حوزه و طول رودخانه‌ی اصلی، بارش متوسط سالانه، متوسط تعداد روزهای بارانی، شاخص جریان پایه، ضریب افت آب‌نگار جریان، درصد بی‌تجاوز Q₂,Q₅,Q₁₀,Q₂₀_،شماره‌ی منحنی، و نفوذپذیری برای هر حوزه محاسبه شد. پس از به‌معیار کردن دادهها، برای انتخاب‌کردن مهم‌ترین عامل‌های مستقل مؤثر بر شدت سیلخیزی در هر منطقه‌ی اقلیمی، تحلیل عاملی جداگانه انجام و رابطه‌های وایازی ﺑﯿﻦ شاخص سیلخیزی و ﻋاﻣﻞ‌های اﻧﺘﺨﺎب‌شده در منطقه‌های ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ اﻗﻠﯿﻤﯽ اﺳﺘﺨﺮاج و ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ کرده ﺷﺪ. نتیجه‌ها نشان داد که سنجههای به‌کاررفته در همه‌ی منطقه‌های اقلیمی بیش از 74% از پراکنش دادهها را توجیه میکند. سنجههای مشترک در عامل اول همه‌ی منطقه‌های اقلیمی، مولفههای مختلف جریان شامل شاخص جریان پایه، ضریب افت آب‌نگار، شاخصهای منحنی تداوم جریان، به‌همراه سنجههای مرتبط با مشخصه‌ی ذاتی حوزه مانند شماره‌ی منحنی و نفوذپذیری بود. شاخصهای بخش پرآبی منحنی تداوم جریان در همه‌ی منطقه‌های اقلیمی در مرتبه‌ی اول تاثیرگزاری و در قالب عامل اول بود، که برای برآورد و پیشبینی کردن سیلخیزی توصیه می‌شود. بهنجارﺑﻮدن ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ ﺧﻄﺎﻫﺎ در رابطه‌های وایازی همه‌ی منطقه‌های اﻗﻠﯿﻤﯽ و ضریب دوربین-واتسن بین 1/5 ﺗﺎ 2/5 بیانگر ممکن‌بودن اعتماد به رابطه‌ها برای برآوردکردن شدت سیلخیزی در حوزههای بی آمار است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

An Analysis of the factors Affecting Flooding Severity in Iran

نویسندگان [English]

Rahim Kazemi ¹
Jahangir Porhemmat ²

¹ Assistant Prof., Soil Conservation and Watershed Management Research Institute, Agricultural Research, Education and Extension Organization, Tehran, Iran

² Prof., Soil Conservation and Watershed Management Research Institute, Agricultural Research, Education and Extension Organization, Tehran, Iran

چکیده [English]

Understanding the flooding phenomenon and its effective factors is an essential prerequisite of its control and management. This phenomenon is influenced by hydrological, climatic and physiographic factors, as it has always been one of the most important issues in hydrology. Using the overlapping of the climate and the border maps of the country, catchments of each climatic region were demarcated. Furthermore, 314 hydrometry stations with a common period (1976-2011) in six climatic zones were selected. The instantaneous peak discharge value was calculated for a 50-year return period. 15 hydrological, climatic and physiographic parameters affecting the flood severity, namely average altitude, catchment area, the Gravelius coefficient, the slope, the main river length, the annual average precipitation, the average number of rainy days, the base flow index (BFI), the hydrograph recession coefficient (K), the curve number (CN), the permeability and the flow duration curve indices (FDC indices) of, Q₂, Q₅, Q₁₀, Q₂₀, were calculated for each catchment. The factor analysis after data standardization was performed in order to select the most important independent factors affecting flooding severity for each climatic region and the regression between the Flooding severity index and the selected factors in different climate zones were extracted and analyzed. Results indicated that the parameters used in all of the climatic regions explained more than 74% of the variance of the data. Common parameters in the first class of effective factors in all of the climatic zones were different flow parameters of (BFI, K, FDC indices), along with some parameters that were related to the intrinsic characteristic of the catchment, such as the CN and permeability. The flow exceedance value of, Q₂, Q₅, Q₁₀, Q₂₀ in all of the climatic zones were ranked first and may be recommended for estimation and prediction in the ungauged catchment. The normal distribution of errors and the coefficient of Durbin Watson (between 1.5 and 2.5) reflect the confidence of the regression equations to estimate the Flooding severity in the ungauged catchments in the different climatic zones.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

Climate zone
estimation
factor analysis
flood intensity
flow characteristics

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