شبیه‌سازی و بهینه سازی تغییر حجم آبگیر سد هرسین بر اثر حالت‌های ممکن اقلیمی

نوع مقاله : پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 کارشناس ارشد منابع آب دانشگاه رازی

2 استادیار گروه علوم و مهندسی آب، دانشگاه رازی

چکیده

تغییر اقلیم بر بیش‌تر جنبه ­های زندگی انسان تأثیر گزارده ‌است به طوری که گاه پژوهش تاثیرهای مختلف تغییر اقلیم مهم­تر از شناسایی و پژوهش خود تغییر اقلیم است. در این پژوهش با آورد40 ساله‌ی (2017-1978) رودخانه‌ی کمیش در مدل WEAP به شبیه‌سازی آب‌گیر سد هرسین پرداخته‌ شد. بهینه‌سازی با هدف کمینه‌‌کردن کمبود نیازهای پایین‌دست سد و اثر حالت‌های ممکن اقلیمی در مدل LINGO بررسی‌شد. نتیجه‌ی‌ کاربرد حالت‌های ممکن اقلیمی RCP نشان‌دهنده‌ی کاهش آورد ورودی آب‌گیر سد هرسین بود و خروجی دو مدل اقلیمیHADGEM2-ao  و  FGOALS-G2 افزایش بیشینه‌ی 5 و کمینه‌ی °C 3 دما در دوره ­های آینده است. برپایه‌ی حالت ممکن RCP8.5 مقدار روان‌آب پیش ­بینی‌شده در دوره ­های آینده  2059-2020 و 2099-2060 کم‌تر از روان‌آب پیش ­بینی‌شده با حالت ممکن RCP2.6 است. کاربرد روان‌آب خروجی با مدل بارش-روان‌آب با حالت ممکن RCP2.6 و RCP8.5 در مدل WEAP موجب شد شاخص اطمینان‌پذیری نیازهای پایین‌دست سد به کم‌تر از 80% برسد. بیش‌ترین مقدار شاخص اطمینان‌پذیری با کاربرد حالت ممکن اقلیمی با مدل HADGEM2-ao با حالت ممکن RCP2.6 در نیاز صنعت است، که در حالت شبیه­ سازی 77/08% بود، درحالی‌که در مدل بهینه به 88/42 % افزایش یافت. کم‌ترین مقدار شاخص اطمینان‌پذیری در مدل WEAP نیز 32/19% برآورد شد، که در مدل LINGO به 52/71% رسید.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Simulation and Optimization of Changes in the Harsin Storage Reservoir as Influenced by the Climate Scenarios

نویسندگان [English]

  • Fatemeh Salimi Mastali 1
  • Maryam Hafezparast Mavadat 2
  • Farhang Sargordi 2
1 Master of Water Resources Engineering, Razi University
2 Assistant Professor, Department of Water Science and Engineering, Razi University
چکیده [English]

The side effects of climate change have affected most aspects of human life; Therefore, the study of the various effects of climate change is more important than the identification of the climate change itself. Using the 40-year discharge (1978-2017) of the using Kamish River in the WEAP model. The reservoir of the Harsin Dam has been simulated the LINGO model, optimization was performed with the aim of minimizing the shortage of the downstream needs and the effects of climatic scenarios. By applying the RCP climate scenarios, the results indicated a decrease in the inflow of the Harsin Reservoir; however, the output of the two climate models HADGEM2-ao and FGOALS-G2 increased the maximum temperature by 5 and at least by 3 degrees Celsius in future periods. According to the RCP8.5 scenario, the volume of runoff predicted in the periods 2020-2059 and 2060-2099, is less than the runoff predicted under the RCP2.6 scenarios. Application of the runoff prediction by the precipitation-runoff model under the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios in the WEAP model caused the reliability index of downstream demands to fall below 80%. The highest value of reliability index by applying the climate scenarios using the HADGEM2-ao model under the RCP2.6 scenario is related to the industry demand, which in the simulation mode is equal to 77.08%, while this index in the optimal model is 88.42%. The lowest value of the reliability index in the WEAP model was estimated at 32.19%; it attained 52.71% using the LINGO model.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • IHACRES
  • LINGO
  • RCP2.6
  • 8.5
  • WEAP

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  • تاریخ دریافت: 20 بهمن 1399
  • تاریخ بازنگری: 26 اسفند 1399
  • تاریخ پذیرش: 17 فروردین 1400

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