تعیین بیشینه‌ی آب‌دهی سیلاب با روش سطح پاسخ در زیرحوزه‌های دره‌رود استان اردبیل

نوع مقاله : پژوهشی

نویسنده

دانشیار دانشکده کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی مغان، دانشگاه محقق اردبیلی

چکیده

مدیریت اندوخته‌‌های آب در حوزه‌ها بی تعیین‌کردن دقیق آب‌دهی سیلاب امکان‌پذیر نیست. این پژوهش با هدف تعیین‌‌کردن بیشینه‌ی سیلاب با دوره‌ی بازگشت‌های 10، 25، 50 و 100 ساله با شبیه‌ساز سطح پاسخ در زیرحوزه‌های دره‌رود (km212900) در استان اردبیل انجام شد. داده­های آب‌دهی 16 ایستگاه آب‌سنجی در دوره‌ی 15 ساله (1394-1380) جمع‌آوری، و کم‌بودهای آماری در دوره‌ی مشترک با روش‌های وایازی میان ایستگاه‌های آب‌سنجی برطرف شد، و سیلاب با دوره­ی بازگشت‌های گوناگون بررسی شد. ویژگی‌های گیتاشناسی موثر بر سیلاب (مساحت، شیب، ضریب شکل و ارتفاع متوسط، زمان تمرکز و شماره‌ی منحنی زیرحوزه‌ها) با نرم­افزارهای آرک‌جی‌آی‌اس  10.2 و WMS7.1 استخراج شد. اندازه‌ی ضریب تبیین در دوره‌ی بازگشت‌های 10، 25، 50 و 100 سال به‌ترتیب 0/96، 0/97، 0/95 و 0/94 برآورد ‌شد، که نشان‌‌دهنده‌ی دقت زیاد شبیه‌ساز در پیش‌بینی اندازه‌ی سیلاب با ویژگی‌های گیتاشناسی حوزه است. شاخص‌های ارزیابی شبیه‌ساز برای دوره‌ی بازگشت‌های 10، 25، 50 و 100 سال شامل ریشه‌ی میانگین مربع‌های خطا به‌ترتیب 20/99، 7/16، 29/05، 39/55، درصد خطای نسبی (ε) 52/7، 39/7، 45/1، 49/13، میانگین خطای مطلق 0/52، 0/45، 0/48، 0/55، ضریب باقی‌مانده‌ی جرم 0/28، 0/16، 0/56، 0/82 و کارآیی شبیه‌ساز 0/74، 0/85، 0/71 و 0/75 برآورد شد. نمودارهای پراکندگی نشان داد که پراکندگی نقطه‌های دور محور یک‌به‌یک برای همه‌ی دوره‌ی بازگشت‌ها و آب‌دهی‌ها بسیار مناسب بود. بر پایه‌ی آزمون تی تفاوت میان اندازه‌های پیش‌بینی‌شده و واقعی در دوره‌ی بازگشت‌های گوناگون در تراز اطمینان 1% معنی‌دار نشد. نتیجه‌های این پژوهش نشان‌داد که دقت روش سطح پاسخ برای برآوردکردن سیلاب در زیرحوزه‌های استان اردبیل مناسب است، اما دقت شبیه‌ساز‌ با افزایش دوره‌ی بازگشت کمی کاهش می‌یابد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Determining the Maximum Flood Discharge Using the Response Surface Methodology in Darrehrood Sub-Basins, Ardebil Province

نویسنده [English]

  • Yaser Hoseini
Moghan College of Agriculture and Natural resources, University of Mohaghegh Ardabili, Ardabil, Iran
چکیده [English]

It is impossible to manage water resources in basins without the accurate determination of the peak flood discharge. Therefore, this study was carried out to determine the peak flood discharge for the return period of 10, 25, 50, and 100 years using RSM model in Darrehrood sub-basins with 12900 km2 area in Ardebil Province. Flow data of 16 hydrometric stations were collected in a statistical period of 15 years (2001-2005) and statistical deficiencies in the joint period were eliminated by using regression methods between hydrometric stations. Floods were calculated with different return periods. Also, physiographic characteristics of sub-basins that affect flood rate including area, slope, shape factor, height average, concentration time, and curve number were achieved using ArcGIS10.2 and WMS7.1 (watershed modeling system). The Goodness of Fit (R2) in the return periods of 10, 25, 50, and 100 years was estimated to be 96, 97, 95, and 94%, respectively. This indicates the model's high accuracy to predict the peak discharge in the sub-basins using the basin physiographic parameters. Model performance indexes of the model evaluation for return period of 10, 25, 50 and 100 years were calculated respectively including root mean square error (RMSE)  of 20.99, 7.16, 29.05, 39.55, relative percentage error (ε) of 52.7, 37.7, 45.1, 49.13, mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.52, 0.45, 0.48, 0.55, coefficient of residual mass (CRM) of 0.28, 0.16, 0.56, 0.82, and model efficiency (EF) of 0.74, 0.85, 0.71, 0.75. Cross-validation diagrams showed that RSM model was very suitable for the whole return periods. Paired t-test showed that the difference between predicted and actual values in different return periods was not significant (P< 0.01). The results of this study showed that the RSM has good accuracy for estimating floods in sub-basins of Ardebil Province.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Ardabil province
  • return period
  • RSM
  • sub basin
  • statistical distribution

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  • تاریخ دریافت: 20 اردیبهشت 1400
  • تاریخ بازنگری: 10 مرداد 1400
  • تاریخ پذیرش: 29 شهریور 1400

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