ارزیابی احتمال خطر شوری آب های زیرزمینی در دشت‌های جنوبی آبخیز بختگان با مدل‌های آماری، داده مبنا و تحلیل سلسله‌مراتبی فازی

نوع مقاله : پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 کارشناس فنی طرح حفاظت از تالاب‌های ایران، سازمان حفاظت محیط زیست

2 دانشیار گروه احیای مناطق خشک و کوهستانی، دانشگاه تهران

3 استادیار گروه احیای مناطق خشک و کوهستانی، دانشگاه تهران

4 استادیار گروه مرتع و آبخیزداری، دانشگاه گنبدکاووس

چکیده

مسایل مرتبط با پیاده‌سازی سیاست‌های ملی در زمینه­ی کاهش آسیب‌های طبیعی در کشورهای توسعه‌یابنده نگرانی فراگیری است. در این پژوهش عامل‌های موثر بر خطر، آسیب‌پذیری و احتمال خطر (ریسک) شوری آب‌های زیرزمینی در دشت‌های جنوبی آبخیز بختگان با مساحت 6137 کیلومترمربع با دو مدل‌ شاخص آماری و الگوریتم رده‌بندی درخت تصمیم، و فرآیند تحلیل سلسله‌مراتبی فازی ارزیابی شد. در گام نخست با بررسی داده‌های کیفی آب‌های زیرزمینی از 124 چاه، نقطه‌های رخ‌داد شوری آب‌های زیرزمینی (بر مبنای شاخص هدایت الکتریکی) شناسایی شد. روش حذف ویژگی بازگشتی برای یافتن و انتخاب‌کردن ترکیب اصلی شاخص‌ها در تهیه‌ی نقشه‌های خطر شوری آب‌های زیرزمینی به‌کار برده‌شد. پس از تعیین‌کردن اهمیت هر شاخص با محاسبه‌ی آزمون جک‌نایف، نقشه‌ی خطر شوری آب‌های زیرزمینی با دو مدل‌ شاخص آماری و الگوریتم رده‌بندی درخت تصمیم پیش‌بینی شد.  اندازه‌ی آسیب‌پذیری منطقه به شوری آب‌های زیرزمینی با فرآیند تحلیل سلسله‌مراتبی فازی سنجیده شد. برای ارزیابی کارکرد مدل‌های دومتغیری و اعتبارسنجی مدل‌سازی‌ها آماره‌های حساسیت، ویژگی، صحت و ضریب کاپا، و برای مدل‌های چندمتغیره چهار معیار ضریب تعیین، ضریب تطابق، ضریب کلینگ گوپتا، و ضریب همبستگی به‌کار برده شد. نقشه­ی احتمال خطر شوری آب‌های زیرزمینی از روی‌هم‌گذاشتن نقشه‌های خطر و آسیب‌پذیری تهیه شد. نتیجه‌ها نشان داد که 4/13 کیلومترمربع از منطقه‌های آبیاری‌شده در رده‌ی احتمال خطر بسیار زیاد است، که بیش‌ترین مساحت در میان کاربری‌های گوناگون با آسیب‌پذیری خیلی زیاد است. برپایه‌ی نتیجه‌ی این پژوهش می‌توان گفت که تدوین طرح‌های جامع مدیریتی، نظارت و پایش فعالیت‌های اجرایی مانند تغییر کاربری‌ها، یا درنظر گرفتن شرایط حاکم در پیاده‌سازی کنش‌های احیایی ممکن است به مهار و مدیریت‌کردن احتمال خطر این منطقه‌ها کمک شایانی کند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Groundwater Salinity Risk Assessment in the Southern Plains of the Bakhtegan Watershed Using Statistical and Data Mining Models and Fuzzy Hierarchical Analysis Process

نویسندگان [English]

  • Hamid Reza Gharechaee 1
  • Aliakbar Nazari Samani 2
  • Shahram Khalighi Sigaroodi, 2
  • Khaled Ahmadaali 3
  • Abolhassan Fathabadi 4
1 Technical Expert of Conservation of Iranian Wetlands Project, Department of Environment, Tehran
2 Associate professor, Department of Arid & Mountainous Region Reclamation, Faculty of Natural Resources College, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran
3 Assistant Professor, Department of Arid & Mountainous Region Reclamation, Faculty of Natural Resources College, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran
4 Assistant Professor, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Gonbad Kavoos, Gonbad Kavoos
چکیده [English]

Issues related to implanting national policies for reducing natural hazards in developing countries are seen as an important and worrying challenge. In this research, the factors affecting the vulnerability, hazard, and risk of groundwater salinity in the southern plains of the Bakhtegan watershed with an area of 6137 km2 were assessed using statistical index models, Classification and Regression Tree (CART), and fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP). At first, by assessing the data of groundwater quality from 124 wells in the watershed, the points of groundwater salinity occurrence (based on the electrical conductivity parameter) were recognized. After calculating and preparing basic maps related to each of the indicators, we looked for a way for selecting indicators to identify key indicators. To this end, the recursive feature removal (FRE) method was utilized for finding and selecting the main combination of indicators to prepare a map of groundwater salinity hazards. Accordingly, after determining the significance of each indicator by calculating the jackknife test, the salinity hazard map of groundwater was predicted using two models (SI) and (CART). Also, the degree of vulnerability of the region to the salinity of the groundwater was determined using the (FAHP) process. The sensitivity, specificity, accuracy and kappa coefficient statistics were used to evaluate the performance of two-variable models. Also, in order to evaluate the performance of multivariate models, fore criteria of coefficient of determination (R2), conformity coefficient (CC), Kling-Gupta efficiency (KGE), and correlation coefficient (COR) were used. The results of groundwater salinity class risk study showed that 4.13 square kilometers of irrigated areas are in a very high-risk class, which among the various land uses with the highest vulnerability is related to this type of land use. Based on the results of this study, it can be stated that the development of comprehensive management plans, monitoring of executive activities, including change of uses, or taking into account the prevailing conditions in the implementation of rehabilitation operations can help control and manage risk in these areas.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Bivariate and multivariate models
  • salinity
  • risk assessment
  • recursive feature elimination

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