تحلیل پدیده ی گردوغبار با شاخص های تحرک پذیری تپه های ماسه یی و پیش بینی آن با تحلیل حساسیت در مرز شمال شرقی ایران

نوع مقاله : پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 عضو هیات علمی، بخش بیابان، مؤسسه ی تحقیقات جنگل‌ها و مراتع کشور، سازمان تحقیقات آموزش و ترویج کشاورزی، تهران، ایران

2 عضو هیات علمی، بخش بیابان، مؤسسه ی تحقیقات جنگل ها و مراتع کشور، سازمان تحقیقات آموزش و ترویج کشاورزی، تهران، ایران

چکیده

پایش بلندمدت تحرک­پ ذیری تپه ­های ماسه­یی و بررسی تغییر اقلیمی مؤثر بر آن ممکن است اثر مهمی در کاهش اثرهای نادرست آن‌ها از جمله ایجاد روزهای غبارآلود، خطر محتمل کاهش کیفیت هوا، و دیگر خطرهای زیست­محیطی و سلامت داشته باشد. هدف‌های اصلی این پژوهش بررسی پدیده­ ی گردوغبار و منشایابی آن، تحلیل وضعیت تحرک­ پذیری تپه ­های ماسه­ یی با دو شاخص، شناخت تاثیر شرایط اقلیمی بر تحرک‌پذیری، و پیش ­بینی اثرهای تغییر احتمالی عامل‌های اقلیمی بر تحرک‌پذیری در منطقه ­ی راه‌بردی سرخس در مرز شمال ­شرقی کشور در بازه ­ی زمانی 27 ساله است. نتیجه‌ی بررسی تعداد روزهای غبارآلود نشان داد که روند روی‌دادهای گردو‏غبار محلی در ایستگاه‌ سرخس افزایشی معنی‌دار است. نتیجه‌ی تحرک‌پذیری تپه ­های ماسه‌یی با دو شاخص لنکستر و لنکستر اصلاح‌شده نشان داد که ارتباط معنی­داری در تراز 99% با روزهای گردوغبار بود، و بر این پایه‌ توانایی کاربرد شاخص لنکستر اصلاح‌شده در این منطقه برداشت می­ شود. با نتیجه‌ی این پژوهش می ­توان پذیرفت که با افزایش خشکی محیط در منطقه بر اندازه‌ی تحرک­ پذیری ماسه ­ی لنکستر افزوده، و خطر بیابان­ زایی تشدید می‌شود. تحلیل حساسیت تحرک ماسه نشان داد که بیش‌ترین تأثیر بر کاهش و افزایش فعالیت ماسه در آینده با تأثیر همراه‌باهمِ فراوانی بادهای فرساینده یا توان برد ماسه، و تبخیرتعرق است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Analysis of Dust Phenomenon Using Sand Dune Mobility Indices and Predicting it with Sensitivity Analysis in Northeast Border of Iran

نویسندگان [English]

  • Maryam Naeimi 1
  • Mohammad Khosroshahi 2
  • Hamid Reza Abbasi 2
  • Samira Zandifar 2
1 Academic staff, Desert Research Department, Research Institute of Forest and Rangeland, AREEO, Tehran, Iran
2 Academic staff, Desert Research Department, Research Institute of Forest and Rangeland, AREEO, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

Long-term monitoring as well as the impacts of climate change on sand dune mobility play a crucial role in reducing their adverse effects, including creating dusty days, potential risks of reduced air quality, and other environmental and health risks. The main objectives of this study were to investigate the dust phenomenon and its origin, to analyze the mobility status of sand dunes using two indicators, to determine the effect of climatic conditions on mobility, and also to predict the effects of changes in climate parameters on sand dunes mobility in the strategic area of ​​Sarakhs, located on the northeastern border of the country, for a period of 27 years. The results on the number of dusty days showed that the local dust events at Sarakhs station had a significant increasing trend. The results of sand dune mobility using Lancaster and modified Lancaster indices showed that there was a significant relationship at 99% level with dusty days, based on which the ability to use the modified Lancaster index in this area is raised. It can also be acknowledged that in the study region, increasing environmental drought coming with the mobility of sand dunes increases the risk of desertification. Also, the results of sand mobility sensitivity analysis showed that the combined effect of the frequency of erosive winds or the potential of sand transport and evapotranspiration has the greatest effect on reducing and increasing sand activity in the future.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Dust
  • modified lancaster
  • sand dune mobility index
  • Sarakhs
  • sensitivity analysis

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