پیش‌بینی آب‌دهی رود فریزی با بهره‌گیری از محاسبه‌های نرم

نوع مقاله : پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری، گروه علوم و مهندسی آب، دانشکده ی کشاورزی، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، مشهد، ایران

2 دانشجوی دکتری، گروه مرتع و آبخیزداری، دانشکده ی محیط‌زیست و منابع‌طبیعی، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، مشهد، ایران

3 دانشیار، گروه علوم و مهندسی آب، دانشکده ی کشاورزی، دانشگاه فسا، فسا، ایران

چکیده

مقدمه و هدف
پیش‌بینی دقیق جریان رود به‌عنوان یک منبع مهم آب شیرین روی زمین، در مهندسی و مدیریت منابع آب ضروری است؛ از این ‌رو، توسعه‌ی فن‌آوری که آب‌دهی رود را پیش‌بینی کند، ضروری است. در این زمینه مدل‌های مختلفی به‌وسیله‌ی پژوهش‌گران پرشماری ارائه‌شده است. این مدل ها به دو دسته‌ی مدل‌های فیزیکی مبتنی بر اصول آب‌شناسی/آبی و مدل‌های مبتنی بر محاسبه‌های نرم تقسیم می‌شوند. تمام مقاله‌های چاپ‌شده شواهدی از اهمیت کاربرد مدل‌های مبتنی بر محاسبه‌های نرم برای مشکلات آب‌شناختی، به‌ویژه آب‌دهی رود هستند.
مواد و روش‌ها
در این پژوهش برای پیش‌بینی آب‌دهی رود فریزی از مدل برنامه‌ریزی بیان ژن (GEP) و ماشین بردار پشتیبان (SVM) استفاده شد. در این پژوهش، از گروه روزانه آب‌دهی در ده سال (1399-1390) مربوط به ایستگاه آب‌سنجی موشنگ استفاده شد. میانگین بلندی منطقه‌ی بررسی‌شده 2171 متر از سطح دریا با طول جغرافیایی "30 '49 °58 تا "30 '4 °58 شرقی و عرض جغرافیایی "1 '20 °36 تا "1 '32 °36 است. از داده‌های آب‌دهی روزانه رود از 1 تا 5 روز قبل به‌عنوان ورودی مدل‌های GEP و SVM استفاده شد. به‌منظور اطمینان از همگنی و تکمیل کمبود داده‌های آب‌دهی استفاده‌شده از آزمون ران و ضریب همبستگی میان ایسـتگاه‌های هم‌جوار اسـتفاده شد. سپس داده‌ها به‌شکل تصادفی به دو بخش، 80% برای آموزش و 20% بـرای آزمون و تعیین خطای مدل‌سازی تفکیک شدند. در مراحل آموزش و اعتبارسنجی براساس ریشه‌ی میانگین مربعات خطا (RSME)، ضریب همبستگی (R)، اریبی مدل، کارایی مدل کلینگ گوپتا (KGE) و نش-ساتکلیف (NSE) عملکرد مدل بررسی شد. در این پژوهش به‌منظور برآورد جریان ورودی به رود فریزی با کاربرد مدل SVM، سه نوع تابع کرنل رایج در آب‌شناسی شامل تابع‌های پایه‌ی خطی، چند جمله‌ای و شعاعی بررسی شد.
نتایج و بحث
از میان تابع‌های گوناگون، تابع مبنای شعاعی به‌دلیل داشتن کمترین اندازه‌ی خطا برای متغیرها انتخاب شد. بهتـرین الگوی ورودی، الگوی شماره‌ی 5 بود که در آن متغیرهای آب‌دهی پیشین با پنج گام زمانی تأخیر استفاده‌‌ شد، و در مرحله‌ی آموزش در مـدل GEP و SVM بهترین عملکرد را در پیش‌بینی آب‌دهی روزانه‌ی ایسـتگاه موشنگ داشت. عملکرد مدل اعمال‌شده نشان داد که SVM (RSME = 1.15، R = 0.985، NSE = 0.85 و KGE = 0.79) در مرحله‌ی اعتبارسنجی برای پیش‌بینی آب‌دهی روزانه‌ی رود از مدل GEP (RSME = 1.65، R = 0.964، NSE = 0.78 و KGE = 0.69) دقیق‌تر است.
نتیجه­ گیری و پیشنهادها
این پژوهش نشان داد که روش محاسبه‌های نرم (مانند SVM و GEP)، ابزار قدرتمندی در پیش‌بینی جریان رود است. با کاربرد این مدل‌ها می‌توان میان سنجه‌های ورودی و خروجی رابطه‌ی‌ مطلوب ایجاد کرد و امکان شبیه‌سازی دقیق جریان میانگین و حداکثر روزانه را فراهم ساخت.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Prediction of Ferizi River-Flow Using Data-Driven Models

نویسندگان [English]

  • Saber Jamali 1
  • Fereshte Rahimi Aghcheshme 2
  • Mohammad Javad Amiri 3
1 PhD Candidate, Department of Water Science and Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran
2 Ph.D. Candidate, Department of Range and Watershed management, Faculty of Natural Resource and Environment, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran
3 Associate Professor, Department of Water Science and Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture, Fasa University, Fasa, Iran
چکیده [English]

Introduction and Objective
Rivers serve as crucial sources of freshwater on Earth, and precise prediction of river flows plays a vital role in effective water resource management. To address this need, researchers have proposed various models. These models can be categorized into two types: (1) hydrological/hydraulic physically based models and (2) data-driven models. The cited papers provide evidence of the significance of employing data-driven models for hydrological issues, particularly in predicting river discharge.
Materials and Methods
In this study, the researchers utilized a gene expression programming model (GEP) and support vector machine (SVM) to predict the discharge of the Ferizi River. The dataset used in the study covered a period of ten years (2011-2020) and consisted of daily Ferizi river discharge readings obtained from the Moushang hydrometry station. The study area had an average altitude of 2171 meters above sea level, with a longitude range of 58° 49' 30" to 59° 4' 30" E and a latitude range of 36° 20' 1" to 36° 32' 1". For the prediction models, daily river discharge data from 1 to 5 days ahead were utilized as input variables for both the GEP and SVM models. To ensure data homogeneity and address any deficiencies, the researchers employed the run test and calculated the correlation coefficient between neighboring stations. Subsequently, the dataset was randomly divided into two groups: 80% for model training and 20% for model testing, as well as evaluating the modeling error. The performance of the models was assessed during the training and validation stages using various evaluation metrics, including root mean square error (RMSE), coefficient of correlation (R), bias, Kling Gupta (KGE), and Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiency (NSE). Additionally, in order to estimate the inflow to the Ferizi River using the SVM model, three common types of kernel functions in hydrology were examined, namely linear kernel, polynomial, and radial basis functions.
Results and Discussion
Among the different functions considered, the radial basis function was selected due to its lower error compared to other functions when applied to the variables. The best input model, Model No. 5, incorporated previous flow variables with a delay of five time steps. In the training phase, both the GEP and SVM models exhibited the highest performance in forecasting the daily flow of Moshang station. The performance of the applied models suggests that SVM (RSME = 1.15, R = 0.985, NSE = 0.85, and KGE = 0.79) demonstrates higher precision in the validation stage for river discharge prediction compared to GEP (RSME = 1.65, R = 0.964, NSE = 0.78, and KGE = 0.69).
Conclusion and Suggestions 
This study has demonstrated that the utilization of soft computing techniques, such as SVM and GEP, is a powerful tool in predicting river flow. These techniques are capable of establishing a favorable relationship between input and output parameters, enabling accurate simulation of average and maximum daily flow.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Artificial intelligence
  • Ferizi watershed
  • gene expression
  • runoff
  • soft computing

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  • تاریخ دریافت: 08 آذر 1401
  • تاریخ بازنگری: 13 دی 1401
  • تاریخ پذیرش: 28 اسفند 1401

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