نوع مقاله : پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 دانشجوی دکتری آبخیزداری، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی ساری
2 استاد گروه آبخیزداری، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی ساری
3 گروه مرتع و آبخیزداری دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی ساری، ایران
4 عضو هیات علمی گروه علوم و مهندسی آبخیزداری ، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی ساری
5 گروه آبخیزداری، دانشکده منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، نور، مازندران، ایران
چکیده
کلیدواژه‌ها
موضوعات
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
Climate change is one of the major environmental challenges, with extensive impacts on both natural and human processes. This study investigates the effects of climate change on precipitation and rainfall erosivity in the Talar watershed. The main objective of the present research is to evaluate the effects of three climate scenarios SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 on precipitation and rainfall erosivity in the near future year 2046. By forecasting climate change in the near future 2046, we can prepare for its short-term impacts, such as water scarcity, droughts, and floods. This allows us to make necessary plans for water resource management, agriculture, and infrastructure development.
The methodology of this research includes using precipitation data from five stations (Qharakhil, Sang Deh, Shirgah, Pol Sefid, and Alasht) in the study area for the period 1985–2014 and simulating the future precipitation using the CMHYD downscaling model software. Metrics such as Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), coefficient of determination (R²), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), Pearson correlation coefficient (R), and Taylor diagram were used to evaluate and compare the simulation models. The results indicate that the MIROC6 model with the LI method has the best performance in simulating precipitation and rainfall erosivity in the Talar watershed.
The research findings suggest that in the near future, under the optimistic SSP1-2.6 scenario, a 43% increase in precipitation leads to a 16.89% increase in rainfall erosivity. This increase could have different effects on soil erosion during dry and wet periods. In the moderate SSP2-4.5 and pessimistic SSP5-8.5 scenarios, precipitation decreases by 38.6% and 1.28%, respectively, resulting in corresponding reductions of 37.9% and 10.8% in rainfall erosivity.
Spatial analysis reveals that reduced precipitation and rainfall erosivity in forested and pasture areas, as well as in residential areas like Pol Sefid, could lead to reduced vegetation cover and increased vulnerability to intense rainfall. In areas like Shirgah, increased precipitation and rainfall erosivity could elevate the risk of landslides and erosion in road trenches.
Overall, the findings highlight that climate change can significantly impact natural resources and livelihoods in the Talar watershed. Urgent actions, including the sustainable management of water and soil resources, are necessary for adaptation to these changes. Such actions involve monitoring livestock grazing in pastures, protecting vegetation cover, and cultivating erosion-resistant plants. The outcomes of this research can assist policymakers and natural resource managers in making informed decisions to mitigate the adverse effects of climate change and improve the management of water and soil resources. Additionally, projected data on the future erosion by rainfall can be used for the further research development and strategic planning in watershed management.
کلیدواژه‌ها [English]
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