کاربست چارچوب مدیریت بحران سیل در استان البرز با تأکید بر شناسایی، طبقه‌بندی و اولویت‌بندی راهکارها

نوع مقاله : پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری توسعة کشاورزی، گروه ترویج، ارتباطات و توسعة روستایی، دانشکدة کشاورزی، دانشگاه زنجان، زنجان، ایران

2 دانشیار ترویج کشاورزی و توسعة روستایی، گروه ترویج و آموزش کشاورزی، دانشکدة کشاورزی، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران

3 استادیار گروه ترویج، ارتباطات و توسعه روستایی، دانشکدة کشاورزی، دانشگاه زنجان، زنجان، ایران

4 دانشیار پژوهشکدة حفاظت خاک و آبخیزداری، سازمان تحقیقات، آموزش و ترویج کشاورزی، تهران، ایران

5 دکتری اقلیم‌شناسی در برنامه‌ریزی محیطی، دبیر کمیتة تحقیقات شرکت آب منطقه‌ای استان البرز

10.22092/wmrj.2025.367812.1605

چکیده

مقدمه و هدف
پدیدة سیل، پیوسته به‌عنوان یک تهدید بزرگ برای بیشتر مردم جهان مطرح‌بوده است. امروزه، در سطح جهان این پدیده به‌‌شکل ملموسی افزایش‌یافته است. از سوی دیگر، تغییر اقلیم سبب افزایش تعداد، شدت و بزرگی این گونه رویدادها شده است. خسارت‌های سیل جبران‌ناپذیر و پیش‌بینی‌نشده است. کشورهای آسیایی، چون کشورهای خاورمیانه، نقاط پرخطری هستند که نسبتاً زیاد در معرض سیل و زلزله و خسارت‌های ناشی از آن‌ها هستند. در دهه گذشته، کشور ایران با سیل‌های ناگواری روبرو بوده است. استان البرز، یکی از استان‌های ایران است که آسیب‌های زیادی از سیل متحمل‌‌شده است. در اثر سیل‌های دهة گذشته در این استان، حداقل 12 نفر کشته، صدها نفر مجروح و 4076233 میلیون ریال خسارت مالی گزارش‌شده است. افزایش آمار سیلاب و خسارت‌های ناشی از آن، نیازمند شناسایی راهکارهای مؤثر مدیریت سیل است. از این رو، هدف این پژوهش، تحلیل و کاربست چارچوب مدیریت بحران سیل در استان البرز با تاکید بر شناسایی، طبقه‌بندی و اولویت‌بندی راهکارها بود.
مواد و روش‌ها
روش استفاده‌شده در این پژوهش از دیدگاه راهبردی، یک روش‌شناسی توصیفی-اکتشافی بود و ماهیت و رویکرد این پژوهش، رویکرد ترکیبی کمی-کیفی بود. در رویکرد کیفی، داده‌ها با مصاحبه و تشکیل کارگروه خبرگان گردآوری شدند و در رویکرد کمی، داده‌ها با پرسش‌نامة تهیه‌شده به‌وسیلة پژوهشگر جمع‌آوری شدند. پاسخ‌های به‌دست آمده از مصاحبه و گروه متمرکز خبرگان با سوالات باز پاسخ، به‌شیوه تحلیل مضمون و با استفاده از نرم‌افزار NVIVO12 تحلیل شدند. در این راستا، مفاهیم، مقوله‌ها و مضمون‌های مرتبط در فرایند کدگذاری استخراج و طبقه‌بندی شدند. سپس، با استفاده از مؤلفه‌های به‌دست آمده، پرسش‌نامه کمی به‌وسیلة پژوهشگر تهیه شد و دوباره با استفاده از نمونة آماری پژوهش، تکمیل شد. برای تعیین اندازة اهمیت هر یک از مؤلفه‌‌ها، آزمون فریدمن با استفاده از نرم‌افزار SPSS24 انجام شد. همچینین، رتبه‌بندی و تعیین اهمیت و اولویت مؤلفه‌‌های مدیریت بحران سیل در استان البرز انجام شد.
نتایج و بحث
براساس یافته‌های این پژوهش، میانگین سنی نمونة آماری پژوهش، 50/2 سال بود و تمام مشارکت‌کنندگان و پاسخگویان، متأهل بودند. همچنین، میانگین سابقة کاری این افراد 21/7 سال بود و بیشتر آن‌ها (55/1%)، مدرک دکتری تخصصی داشتند که از دیدگاه رشته تحصیلی، بیشترین فراوانی در میان رشتة تخصصی نمونة آماری پژوهش، رشته آبخیزداری با فراوانی 22/5% بود. یافته‌های این پژوهش بیانگر آن بود که در مدیریت بحران سیل بیشترین اندازة اهمیت در رتبه‌بندی آزمون فریدمن در گام کاهش خطر، راهبرد توسعة سازه‌های آبخیزداری و آبخوانداری با میانگین رتبة 31/57، در گام آمادگی، راهبرد انسجام و هماهنگی سازمان‌های مرتبط با مدیریت بحران سیل با میانگین رتبه 7/68، در گام واکنش، راهبرد استقرار سریع نیروهای امدادی-امنیتی در زمان رخداد بحران سیل با میانگین رتبه 2/96 و در گام بازیابی نیز راهبرد ساماندهی و اصلاح مسیر رود‌ها با میانگین رتبه 6/43  بودند.
نتیجه‌گیری و پیشنهادها
یافته‌های این پژوهش نشان داد که برای دستیابی به مدیریت موفق بحران سیل در سطح استان البرز، و تسهیل ایجاد یک حکمرانی یکپارچه و فراگیر با حضور سودبران گوناگون در تصمیم‌گیری‌ها، نیاز به ایجاد یا بهبود ساختار سازمانی همراه با هماهنگی قوی میان سودبران گوناگون در یک سازمان واحد قدرتمند یا میان چند سازمان صاحب ‌نفوذ مهم است. در این راستا، نقش سازمان‌هایی چون وزارت نیرو و سازمان منابع‌طبیعی و آبخیزداری کشور در سطح ملی و شرکت‌های آب منطقه‌ای، ادارة کل منابع‌طبیعی و آبخیزداری، مؤسسه‌های پژوهشی و دانشگاهها در سطح استان مهم است. ازاین‌رو، نشست‌های هماهنگی و گفتمان میان آنها به‌همراه مشارکت دیگر سودبران مهم (جوامع محلی)، منجر به تقویت مدیریت و تصمیم‌گیری سازگارانه و تاب‌آورانه خواهد شد. بر پایة نتایج این پژوهش مشخص شد که برای بهبود فرآیند مدیریت بحران، حکمرانی مشارکتی، ایفای نقش تمام سودبران در سیاست‌گذاری‌ها و ایجاد کمیته‌های محلی به‌منظور مشورت و تصمیم‌گیری و تدوین راه‌حل‌های بلندمدت و پایدار برای مقیاس‌های گوناگون زمانی و مکانی، و سرانجام تغییر نگرش نسبت به انجام اقدامات مدیریتی (غیر سازه‌ای) در کنار اقدامات سازه‌ای (فنی-مهندسی) ضروری است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Application of the Flood Crisis Management Framework in the Alborz Province with Emphasis on Identification, Classification, and Prioritization of Solutions

نویسندگان [English]

  • Ardeshir Mesbah 1
  • Esmail Karamidehkordi 2
  • Ali Tohidloo 3
  • Amin Salehpour Jam 4
  • Tofigh Saadi 5
1 Ph.D. Student of Agricultural Development, Department of Agricultural Extension, Communication and Rural Development, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Zanjan, Zanjan, Iran
2 Associate Professor of Agricultural Extension and Rural Development, Department of Agricultural Extension and Education, Faculty of Agriculture, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran
3 Assistant Professor, Department of Agricultural Extension, Communication and Rural Development, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Zanjan, Zanjan, Iran
4 Associate Professor, Soil Conservation and Watershed Management Research Institute, Agricultural Research, Education and Extension Organization (AREEO), Tehran, Iran
5 Ph.D. Climatology in Environmental Planning, Secretary of the Research Committee of Alborz Regional Water Company
چکیده [English]

Introduction and Goal
The phenomenon of Flooding has always been a major threat to most people in the world. Today, the occurrence of this phenomenon has increased significantly worldwide. On the other hand, climate change has led to an increase in the number, intensity, and magnitude of such events. The damages caused by flooding are often irreparable and unpredictable. Asian countries, such as those in the Middle East, are high-risk areas that are exposed to relatively high levels of flooding and earthquakes and the damage they cause. In the past decade, Iran has faced unfortunate flood. Alborz Province is one of the provinces of Iran that has suffered significant damage from flooding. As a result of the floods in the past decade in this province, at least 12 people have died, hundreds have been injured, and 4,076,333 million rials of financial damage has been caused due to floods. The increase in flood statistics and the damages caused by them necessitate the identification of effective flood management solutions. Therefore, the purpose of the present study was to apply the flood crisis management framework in Alborz province with an emphasis on identifying, classifying, and prioritizing solutions.
Materials and Methods
The method used in this research, from a strategic perspective, was a descriptive-exploratory methodology, and the nature and approach of this research was a combined quantitative-qualitative approach. In the qualitative approach, data were collected through interviews and the formation of a panel of experts, and in the quantitative approach, data were collected through a questionnaire prepared by the researcher. The responses obtained from the interview with open-ended questions were first analyzed using thematic analysis and using NVIVO12 software. In this regard, related concepts, categories, and themes were extracted and categorized in the coding process. Then, using the obtained components, a quantitative researcher-made questionnaire was designed and completed again by the research sample. To determine the importance of each component, the Friedman test was performed using SPSS24 software. Also the ranking and determination of the importance and priority of flood crisis management components in Alborz Province were performed.
Results and Discussion
Based on the findings, the mean age of the research sample was 50.2 years and all of them were married. Also, the average work experience of these individuals was 21.7 years and the majority of them (55.1%) had a Ph.D. degree. In terms of field of study, watershed management was the most frequent among the specialized fields of the research sample with a frequency of 22.5%. The findings of this study indicated that in flood crisis management, the most important ranking in the Friedman test in the risk reduction step was the strategy for developing watershed and aquifer management structures with an average rank of 31.57; in the preparedness step, the strategy for integrating and coordinating organizations related to flood crisis management with an average rank of 7.68; in the response step, the strategy for rapidly deploying relief and security forces during a flood crisis with an average rank of 2.96; and in the recovery step, the strategy for organizing and correcting the course of rivers with an average rank of 6.43.
Conclusion and Suggestions
The findings of this research showed that to achieve successful flood crisis management at the provincial level in Alborz, and to facilitate the establishment of integrated and comprehensive governance with the involvement of various stakeholders in decision-making, it is necessary to create or improve the organizational structure along with strong coordination among different stakeholders within a powerful single organization or among several influential organizations. In this regard, the role of organizations such as the Ministry of Energy and the National Natural Resources and Watershed Management Organization at the national level, as well as regional water companies, the General Directorate of Natural Resources and Watershed Management, research institutes, and universities at the provincial level, is important. Therefore, coordination meetings and dialogue among them, along with the participation of other important stakeholders (local communities), will lead to the strengthening of adaptive and resilient management and decision-making. Based on the results of this research, it was determined that to improve the crisis management process, participatory governance, the involvement of all stakeholders in policymaking, and the establishment of local committees for consultation and decision-making are essential. These committees should focus on formulating long-term and sustainable solutions for various temporal and spatial scales, and ultimately, it is necessary to change the attitude towards implementing management actions (non-structural) alongside structural (technical-engineering) measures.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Crisis management
  • flood
  • governance
  • integrated approach
  • mixed method
  • resilience

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  • تاریخ دریافت: 05 آذر 1403
  • تاریخ بازنگری: 05 دی 1403
  • تاریخ پذیرش: 28 اسفند 1403

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