سنجش تاب‌آوری اجتماعی - فرهنگی محیط‌های روستایی در معرض خطر سیلاب با استفاده از روش TOPSIS

نوع مقاله : پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشیار پژوهشکده حفاظت خاک و آبخیزداری، سازمان تحقیقات، آموزش و ترویج کشاورزی، تهران، ایران

2 دانشیار گروه مرتع و آبخیزداری، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه ایلام، ایلام، ایران

3 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد آبخیزداری، گروه مرتع و آبخیزداری، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه ایلام، ایلام، ایران

10.22092/wmrj.2025.368104.1610

چکیده

مقدمه و هدف
در دهه‌های گذشته، توسعه‌ای ناپایدار، سبب‌ ظهور و بروز انواع بحران‌ها و خسارت­های جانی، اجتماعی، اقتصادی و مخاطرات زیست ‌محیطی در گستره آبخیزهای کشور شده است. به‌ویژه، رخداد سیل از جمله پدیده‌هایی است که تحت تأثیر این توسعه ناپایدار و اثرات تغییر اقلیم، در دهه‌های پیشین در مناطق شهری و روستایی کشور به‌شدت افزایش یافته است. بر این اساس، سنجش ابعاد گوناگون تاب‌آوری جوامع شهری و روستایی در معرض خطر سیلاب و نیز شناسایی راهبردهای افزایش تاب‌آوری در برابر سیل، گام مهمی برای مدیریت این پدیده به‌ویژه در فرایند مدیریت جامع آبخیز است. در این پژوهش، توان نسبی و مطلق تاب‌آوری اجتماعی-فرهنگی جوامع محلی در معرض خطر سیلاب در مرزبندی واحدهای آب‌شناختی آبخیز سنگ‌سفید با استفاده از روش تصمیم‌گیری چند شاخصه TOPSIS، سنجش شد.
مواد و روش‌ها
در این پژوهش، نخست شاخص‌های سنجش تاب‌آ‌وری اجتماعی-فرهنگی، با استفاده از پژوهش کتابخانه‌ای و نتایج دیگر پژوهش‌ها، مصاحبه با کارشناسان و نیز بازدیدهای میدانی و مصاحبه با ساکنان، ‌شناسایی شد. سپس، برای تعیین کمیت شاخص‌های سنجش تاب‌آوری اجتماعی-فرهنگی در وضعیت کنونی منطقه، از روش کدگذاری چند پاسخی، استفاده شد. متغیرهای استفاده‌شده در پرسش‌نامه از نوع متغیرهای ترتیبی کیفی و منطبق با طیف لیکرت (خیلی‌کم (1)، کم (2)، متوسط (3)، زیاد (4) و خیلی‌زیاد (5)) در نظر گرفته شد. سپس، از ساکنان منطقه پس از سنجش روایی و پایایی پرسش‌نامه، نظرسنجی شد. در این راستا، روایی ابزار اندازه‌گیری به‌وسیلة گروه خبرگان ‌تأیید شد. هم‌چنین، از روش آلفای کرونباخ برای محاسبه اندازة پایایی یا قابلیت اعتماد ابزار اندازه‌گیری، استفاده شد. در این پژوهش، واحد نمونه، خانوار روستایی بود و برای محاسبه حجم نمونه از رابطة کوکران و بر اساس تعداد خانوار روستایی موجود در هر واحد آب‌شناختی استفاده شد. سرانجام، توان نسبی و مطلق تاب‌آوری اجتماعی-فرهنگی جامعه‌های محلی در معرض خطر سیلاب در مرزبندی واحدهای آب‌شناختی آبخیز سنگ‌سفید ‌سنجش شد و با استفاده از روش تصمیم‌گیری چند شاخصه TOPSIS، با و بدون دخالت دادن دو گزینه فرضی در قالب کمینه و بیشینه اندازه‌های توان تاب‌آوری (به‌ترتیب با اندازه‌های متوسط 1 و 5 مرتبط با کلیه شاخص‌ها در واحدها) تعیین شد.
نتایج و بحث
در این پژوهش، 11 شاخص به‌عنوان گویه‌های اصلی سنجش تاب‌آوری محیط‌های روستایی در معرض خطر سیلاب شناسایی شد. هم‌چنین، حجم نمونه با استفاده از رابطة کوکران تعداد 663 نمونه به‌دست آمد. افزون بر این، اندازة آلفای کرونباخ 0/832 محاسبه شد که بیانگر اندازة پایایی خوب ابزار‌ اندازه‌گیری بود. نتایج نشان داد با اهمیت‌ترین و بی‌ اهمیت‌ترین شاخص در سنجش تاب‌آوری اجتماعی-فرهنگی در مقایسه با دیگر شاخص‌ها از دیدگاه کارشناسان به‌ترتیب مربوط به شاخص‌های V1 (اندازه مسئولیت‌پذیری و مشارکت افراد محلی) و V4 (شناخت ساکنان جامعه محلی از یکدیگر) بود. همچنین، پنج شاخص مهم دیگر به‌ترتیب شامل شاخص‌های V1 و V6 (سطح دانش جامعه محلی در ارتباط با سیل و اقدامات لازم)، V9 (اندازة حس دلبستگی ساکنان به ‌منطقه)، V11 (اندازة اعتماد جامعه محلی به ‌سیاست‌ها و برنامه‌های مسئولان) و V8 (اندازة اعتماد جامعه محلی به ‌خدمت‌رسانی عادلانه نهادهای متولی در هنگام  بحران و پس از آن) بودند. همچنین، نتایج نشان داد که دامنة اندازه‌های نزدیکی نسبی به راه‌حل ایده‌آل مثبت و منفی به‌ترتیب از 0/80 تا 5/20 و 1/98 تا 5/90 متغیر بود. افزون بر این، دامنة اندازه‌های نمایه TOPSIS از 0/28 تا 0/88 تغییر کرد. دامنه گستردة نمایه TOPSIS، نشان‌دهنده وجود واحدهای با توان متفاوت تاب‌آوری در برابر سیلاب در منطقه پژوهش‌شده بود. در این راستا، نتایج نشان داد که کمترین و بیشترین اندازه تاب‌آوری در برابر سیلاب (اندازه‌های Ri) مربوط به واحدهای S-int2 و S9 به‌ترتیب 0/28 و 0/88 بود. همچنین، در محیط‌های روستایی در معرض خطر سیلاب در مرزبندی واحدهای انتخاب‌شده آب‌شناختی، توان تاب‌آوری 6669/4 هکتار (73/41%) متوسط، 732/5 هکتار (8/06%) زیاد و 1682/7 هکتار (18/52%) خیلی‌زیاد بود.
نتیجه‌گیری و پیشنهادها
نتایج این پژوهش بیانگر اهمیت متفاوت میان 11 شاخص شناسایی‌شده در سنجش تاب‌آوری بود. نتایج سنجش توان تاب‌آوری محیط‌های روستایی در معرض خطر سیلاب در مرزبندی واحدهای آب‌شناختی آبخیز سنگ‌سفید، بیانگر وجود انواع واحدها با توان تاب‌آوری متوسط، زیاد و خیلی‌زیاد در آبخیز پژوهش‌شده بود. بر اساس نتایج این پژوهش، برای افزایش توان تاب‌آوری واحدها، به‌ویژه با کاربست روش‌های ساختاربندی مسئله استفاده از برنامه‌های SWOT و DPSIR، پیشنهاد می‌شود. افزون بر این، استفاده از نتایج این پژوهش و انواع فنون تعیین اهمیت یا وزن‌های شاخص‌ها در ترکیب با دیگر روش‌های تصمیم‌گیری چند شاخصه، برای پژوهش‌های آتی سنجش توان تاب‌آوری پیشنهاد می‌شود. زمان‌بر بودن نظرسنجی از ساکنان آبخیز، یکی از چالش‌برانگیزترین موضوعات در این پژوهش بود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Measuring Socio-cultural Resilience of Rural Environments Exposed to Flood Risk Using the TOPSIS Method

نویسندگان [English]

  • Amin Salehpour Jam 1
  • Noredin Rostami 2
  • Shokoufeh Abdali 3
  • Jamal Mosaffaie 1
1 Associate Professor, Soil Conservation and Watershed Management Research Institute, Agricultural Research, Education and Extension Organization (AREEO), Tehran, Iran
2 Associate Professor, Department of Rangeland and Watershed Management, Faculty of Agriculture, Ilam University, Ilam, Iran
3 M.Sc. Student of Watershed Science and Engineering, Department of Rangeland and Watershed Management, Faculty of Agriculture, Ilam University, Ilam, Iran
چکیده [English]

Introduction and Goal
In the past decades, unsustainable development has led to the emergence and occurrence of various crises and human, social, economic losses, and environmental hazards in the country's watersheds. In particular, flooding is one of the phenomena that has increased significantly in urban and rural areas of the country in recent decades due to this unsustainable development and the effects of climate change. Accordingly, measuring various dimensions of resilience of urban and rural communities at risk of flooding as well as identifying strategies to increase resilience against flooding, is an important step in manage this phenomenon, especially in the process of integrated watershed management. In this study, the relative and absolute potential of socio-cultural resilience of local communities at risk of flooding in the hydrological units of the Sang Sefid watershed was carried out using the TOPSIS multi-attribute decision-making method.
Materials and Methods
In this study, first, indicators of socio-cultural resilience were identified, based on the literature review, interviews with experts, as well as field visits and interviews with residents. Then, the multiple response coding method was used to quantify the socio-cultural resilience indicators in the current situation of the region. The variables used in the questionnaire were considered qualitative ordinal variables according to the Likert scale (very low (1), low (2), moderate (3), high (4) and very high (5)) were considered. Then, after assessing the validity and reliability of the questionnaire, a survey was conducted among the residents of the area. In this regard, the validity of the questionnaire was approved by the expert group. Also, Cronbach's alpha method was used to calculate the reliability of the measurement tool. Also, in this study, the sample unit was a rural household, and Cochran's formula was used to calculate the sample size based on the number of rural households in each hydrological unit. Finally, to measure the relative and absolute potential of socio-cultural resilience of local communities at risk of flooding was measured in the demarcation of hydrological units of the Sang Sefid watershed and was determined using the TOPSIS multi-criteria decision-making method, with and without the intervention of two hypothetical alternatives in the form of minimum and maximum values of resilience potential (respectively with average values of 1 and 5 related to all indicators in units).
Results and Discussion
In this study, 11 indicators were identified as the main items for measuring the resilience of rural environments at risk of flooding. Also, the sample size based on Cochran's formula was calculated as 663 samples. In addition, the value of Cronbach's alpha was calculated as 0.832, which indicates the good reliability of the measurement tool. The results show that the most important and least important indicators in measuring socio-cultural resilience compared to other indicators from the experts' perspective were indicatorsindicators V1 (The level of responsibility and participation of the local community) and V4 (The level of familiarity of local community residents with each other) respectively. Also, five other important indicators included V1, V6 (level of knowledge of the local community about flood and necessary measures), V9 (sense of belonging of the residents to the region), V11 (level of trust of the local community in the policies and programs of the authorities) and V8 (level of trust of the local community in the fair service of the custodian institutions in times of crisis and after) respectively. Also, the results show that the range of values of relative closeness to the positive and negative ideal solution varies from 0.80 to 5.20 and 1.98 to 5.90, respectively. Also, the range of TOPSIS index values varies from 0.28 to 0.88. The wide range of the TOPSIS index indicates the presence of units with different flood resilience potentials in the studied area. In this regard, the results showed that the lowest and highest flood resilience measures (Ri measures) were 0.28 and 0.88 for units S-int2 and S9, respectively. Also, in rural areas at risk of flooding in the boundaries of selected hydrological units, the resilience potential of 6669.4 hectares (73.41%) have moderate resilience potential, 732.5 hectares (8.06%) have high resilience potential, and 1682.7 hectares (18.52%) was very high.
Conclusion and Suggestions
The results of this study show the different importance among the 11 indicators identified in measuring resilience. The results of measuring the resilience potential of rural environments at risk of flooding in the demarcation of hydrological units of the Sang Sefid watershed indicated the existence of types of units with medium, high, and very high resilience potential in the studied watershed. Based on the results of this research, it is recommended to use SWOT and DPSIR programs to increase the resilience potential of units, especially by applying problem structuring methods. In addition, the use of the results of this study and various techniques for determining the importance or weights of indicators in combination with other multi-attribute decision-making methods is suggested for future studies of resilience measurement. Also, the time-consuming survey to fill the questionnaire by the watershed residents was the most challenging issue in the current study.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Decision matrix
  • ideal solution
  • local community
  • multi-attribute decision-making
  • resilience potential

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  • تاریخ دریافت: 09 دی 1403
  • تاریخ بازنگری: 24 بهمن 1403
  • تاریخ پذیرش: 28 اسفند 1403

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