تجزیه و تحلیل حساسیت پارامترهای ورودی مدل مدیریت رواناب شهری SWMM (مطالعه موردی: شهر ماهدشت)

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشکده منابع طبیعی دانشگاه تهران

2 دانشیار دانشکده منابع طبیعی دانشگاه تهران

3 استاد دانشکده منابع طبیعی دانشگاه تهران

چکیده

در طی چند دهه­ی گذشته با توجه به رشد سریع جمعیت و توسعه­ی شهری، رواناب شهری افزایش یافته و منجر به مشکلات محیط زیستی مختلفی از جمله آب­گرفتگی معابر سطح شهر، انتشار آلودگی‌های زیست محیطی و خطرات ناشی از گسترش سیلاب شده است. تحلیل حساسیت روشی است برای نشان دادن این که کدام یک از پارامترها ورودی مدل تأثیـر بیشتری بر نتایج اعمال می­کند. هدف از تحقیق تعیین پارامترهای مهم ورودی مدل SWMM و اطمینان از عملکرد مدل در شهر ماهدشت است. به این ترتیب که از مقدار اولیه برآورد شده 10 پارامتر‌ درصد مناطق نفوذناپذیر، شیب، عرض معادل، ضریب زبری مانینگ در مناطق نفوذپذیر و نفوذناپذیر،زمان تمرکز، شماره منحنی(CN)، ارتفاع ذخیره در مناطق نفوذناپذیر و نفوذپذیر و درصد مناطق نفوذناپذیر بدون ذخیره­ی سطحی، به مقدار 15 و 30 درصد افزایش و کاهش داده شد و آب­دهی  اوج حاصل از این تغییرات به عنوان متغیر وابسته مورد بررسی قرار گرفت. نتایج نشان داد حساس­ترین پارامتر مربوط به درصد اراضی نفوذناپذیر و کم­حساس­ترین پارامتر مربوط به ارتفاع ذخیره­ی مناطق نفوذپذیر است. برای فرایند واسنجی و اعتبارسنجی مدل رواناب متناظر با سه واقعه­ی بارندگی در خروجی حوضه‌ اندازه­گیری و با رواناب شبیه­سازی شده به وسیله‌ی مدل مقایسه گردید. نتایج نشان داد که انطباق خوبی بین آب­دهی و عمق رواناب شبیه­سازی شده و مشاهده­ای وجود دارد. بنابراین می­توان از این مدل برای پیش­بینی خطر آبگرفتگی، طراحی و اولویت­بندی مناطق برای رفع مشکل آب­گرفتگی استفاده کرد.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Sensitivity analysis of input parameters of SWMM model to urban runoff management (Case study: Mahdasht town)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Ali Shahbazi 1
  • Sharam Khalighi Sigarodi 2
  • Arash Malekian 2
  • Ali Salajegh 3
1 Faculty of Natural Resources, Tehran University
2 Associate Professor, Faculty of Natural Resources, Tehran University
3 Full Professor, Faculty of Natural Resources, Tehran University
چکیده [English]

During the past decades due to population growth and urbanization , urban runoff has increased and lead to different Environmental problems such as inundation risk, release the environmental pollutions and risks of flooding.Sensitivity analysis is used to determine the important input parameters which caused run off. Basically, the aim of this study was determine the important input parameters of SWMM model and the reliability of this model Performance in the Mahdashttown. Therefore, 10 parameters including percentage of impervious area, slope, width, N-Manning for impervious area, time of concentration, curve number, N-Manning for pervious area, depth of depression storage on impervious area, depth of depression storage on pervious area and percent of impervious area with no depression storage reduction, the first account of abovementioned parameters was increased and decreased 15 and 30 percent and flood peak discharge was selected as the dependent variable. For calibration and validation process model, corresponding to three event rainfall runoff measured at the output of the basin and was compared with runoff simulated by the model. The results showed there is good agreement between simulated and observed runoff discharge and depth.So this model can use to predict the inundation risk, design and prioritization areato fixing the inundation problem.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Urban runoff
  • Sensitivity analysis
  • Calibration
  • Validation
  • SWMM model
  • pervious area
1- Ahmadian, M. 2012. Urban runoff discussion to reduce risks using SWMM model (Case study: New Hashtgerd Town). MSc thesis.University of Science and Research.150 pp.

2- Arabi, M., Govindaraju, R.S. and Hantush, M.M. 2007. A probabilistic approach for analysis of uncertainty in the evaluation of watershed management practice. J. Hydrol 333, 459–471 pp.

3- Avrand, R. Turabipodh, H. and Frzayy, A. 2006. Sensitivity Analysis of    HEC-1 model input parameters. Seventh International Conference on River Engineering.University ofChamran Ahvaz 12pp.

4- Cibin, R., Sudheer, K. P. and Chaubey, I.2010. Sensitivity and identifiability of stream flow generation parameters of the SWAT model, Journal of Hydrological processes, 24: 1133-1148 pp.

5- Cunderlik, J. and Simonovic, P. 2004 .Assessment of water resources risk andvalnerability to changig climatic condition, university of western Ontario, project report IV.

6- Dalir, A. 2009. Simulation performance combined sewage during rain MIKE SWMM model and Arc view (case study portion of the sewage network in Mashhad). Water Development.MSc. Thesis.University of Ferdowsi Mashhad.195 pp.

7- Dongquan, Z., Jining, C., Haozheng, W., Qingyuan, T., Shangbing, C. and Zheng, S., 2009. GIS-based urban rainfall-runoff modeling using an automatic catchment-discretization approach, (case study in Macau). Environ Earth Sci, 59, 465–472 pp.

8- Du, J.K., Xie, S.P., Xu, Y.P., Xu, C.Y. and Singh, V.P. 2007. Development and testing of a simple physically-based distributed rainfall-runoff model for storm runoff simulation in humid forested basins. J Hydrol 306, 334–346 pp.

9- FallahTafti. A. 2005. Simulated surface runoff drainage area Mashhad Water and electricity using fusion model MIKE SWMM and GIS. Water Development.MSc. Thesis.University of Ferdowsi Mashhad.

10- Gironas, J., Roesner, L.A. Rossman L.A and Davis, j. 2010. A new app lications manual for the Storm Water Management Model (SWMM). Environmental Modelling  and Software 25: 813-814 pp.

11- Hsu, M.H., Chen, S.H. and Chang, T.J. 2000. Inundation simulation for urban drainage basin with storm sewer system.Journal of Hydrology 234, 21–37 pp.

12- Huber, WC. and. Dickinson, RE. 1992. Storm water management model user’s manual, version 4. Environmental Protection Agency, Georgia.

13- Mahdavi, M. 2008. Applied hydrology, 5ed Edition, Vol 1, University of Tehran press, 418pp.

14- Malekinejad, H and Ekrami, M. 2010. Various aspectsofurban andnon-urban hydrology. The National Conference onUrbanfloodmanagement. 9 pp.

15-Moafi. A. 2012. Optimal design of flood-based translation watershed characteristics (case study: Tehran flooding back West). MSc thesis.University of Tehran.128 pp.

16- Phillips, B.C., Yu, S., Thompson, G.R. and Silva, N. 2005. 1D and 2D Modelling of urban drainage systems using XP-SWMM and TUFLOW. 10th International Conference on Urban Drainage, Copenhagen, Denmark, 21-26 August, 8 pp.

17- Radmehr, A. 2010. Optimal management of urban surface runoff using spatial multi-criteria decision. MSc. Thesis. University of Tehran.

18- Rosso, R. 1994. An introduction to spatially distributed modelling of basin response. In Advances in Distributed Hydrology, Rosso R Peano A Becchi I, Bemporad GA (Eds), Water Resources Publications: Fort Collins; 3–30 pp.

19- RostamiKhalaj. M. 2011. Urban flood risk zoning using hydrological and hydraulic models integration. (Case study: Zone 2, City of Mashhad). MSc thesis.University of Tehran.127 pp.

20- Rostami Khalaj, M., Mahdavi, M., Khaliqi Sigarodi, Sh., Salajegheh, A. 2012. Sensitivity analysis of variables affecting on urban flooding using SWMM mode.Journal of Watershed Management.3 (5), 81-91pp.

21- Saltelli A., Scott E.M., Chan K. and Marian S., 2000, Sensitivity Analysis. JohnWiley & Sons: Chichester

22- Santhi, C., Arnold, J.G., Williams, J.R., Dugas, W.A., Srinivasan, R. and Hauck, L.M. 2001. Validation of the SWAT model on a large river basin with point and nonpoint sources. J Am Water ResourAssoc 37, 1169–1188 pp.

23- Sharifan, R.A., Roshan, A., Aflatoni, M., Jahedi, A and Zolghadr, M. 2010. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of SWMM model in computation of manhole water depth and subcatchment peak flood. Procedia Social and Behavioral Sciences, 2: 7739-7740 pp.

24- Shiran, M. 2007. Hslsytsomevariablesaffecting thegeomorphologicalmapofflood routinginfloodareasidentifiedKarunmodelHEC-HMS. MSc. Thesis.University of TarbiatMoalem.

25- Sourisseau, S.A., Basser, S.F. and Perie, T. 2007. Calibration, validation and sensitivity analysis of an ecosystem model applied to artificial streams. Water Res.

26- Temprano, J., Arango, O., Cagiao, J., Suarez, J and Tejero, I. 2006. Storm water quality calibration by SWMM: a case study in Northern Spain. Water SA, 32(1): 55-63 pp.

27. Tsihrintzis, V  and Hamid, R. 1998. Runoff quality prediction from small urban catchments using SWMM.Hydrol Process, 12(2): 311-329 pp.

28- Zoppou, C. 2001. Review of urban storm water models. Environmental Modelling& Software 16, 195–231 pp.