مقایسه ی دو مدل ناپارامتری کا-نزدیک‌ترین همسایه و درخت تصمیم ام5 در پیش بینی آب دهی رود در حوزه ی آب‌خیز کرج

نوع مقاله : پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 کارشناس ارشد مهندسی منابع آب دانشکده ی کشاورزی دانشگاه بیرجند

2 دانشیار گروه علوم و مهندسی آب دانشکده ی کشاورزی دانشگاه بیرجند

3 استادیار گروه علوم و مهندسی آب دانشکده ی کشاورزی دانشگاه بیرجند

چکیده

اهمیت برنامه‌ریزی و مدیریت منابع آب، رشد روزافزون جمعیت و محدودیت منابع آب سطحی در کشور پیش­ بینی دقیق‌تر جریان رودها را با استفاده از ابزارها و رو ش­های نوین مدل سازی به ‌ضرورتی اجتناب‌ناپذیر تبدیل کرده است. برای پیش‌بینی جریان رودها در سال‌های گذشته روش‌های مختلفی ابداع شده است، و یکی از آن‌ها مدل ­های مبتنی بر داده است. در این پژوهش با استفاده از دو مدل مبتنی ‌بر داده (ام‌5، کاان‌ان) و داده­ های آب‌ وهواشناسی (آب‌دهی، بارش، دما و تبخیر) در دوره‌ی 1388– 1381 آب‌دهی رود در حوزه ­ی آب‌خیز کرج پیش­بینی، و کارآیی و دقت آن­ها بررسی و مقایسه شد. برای تعیین داده ­های مورد نیاز در آموزش و انتخاب ترکیب­ های بهینه از روش نوین آزمون گاما استفاده شد. ترکیب­ های مناسب برای ورودی مدل تعیین، و به دو مدل داده‌ محور ام‌5 و کاان‌ان وارد شد. نتایج نشان داد که در هر دو مدل­ به‌کار رفته برای ترکیب ­هایی که پارامتر آب‌دهی در آن بوده است پیش ­بینی دقیقی­ به‌دست آمد. علاوه بر این، مدل ام5 دقت بیش‌تری از مدل کاان‌ان دارد، به‌طوری‌که آر2 برای مدل های ام‌5 و کاان‌ان به‌ترتیب 0/9738، 0/9345، مقدار آرام‌اس‌ای آن­ها به‌ترتیب 0/5468، 0/8676، و مقدار کا‌جی‌ای آن­ها 0/9855 و 0/9636 بود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Comparison of Two Nonparametric Models, K- nearest neighbor and M5 Decision Tree in Forecasting the River Discharge in the Karaj Catchment

نویسندگان [English]

  • Safora Arab 1
  • Abbas Khashei-Siuki 2
  • Mohsen Pourreza-Bilondi 3
  • Seyed Reza Hashemi 3
1 M.Sc. Water Engineering Department, University of Birjand
2 Associate Professor, Water Engineering Department, University of Birjand
3 Assistant Professor, Water Engineering Department, University of Birjand
چکیده [English]

The importance of water resources planning and management, the fast growing population, and the limited surface water resources, have made the application of the new technology to forecasting of river flow. A necessity, various methods have been presented in recent years to forecast the river flow, and the data-based models are considered the most reliable for this purpose. The river flow in the Karaj Catchment has been simulated using the data based models (KNN and M5). Hydroclimatological data (discharge, precipitation, temperature and evaporation) for the 2002 to 2009 duration have been collected to carry out the simulation processes. The performance and accuracy of the models were examined and compared. The Gamma test was used to select appropriate compositions. Suitable compositions were determined as the model inputs (KNN and M5). These features were entered in to the two data-based models. Results showed that both models simulated reliable flow predictions, if the discharge had been entered as an input. The M5 model showed a better precision as compared with the KNN model. The Coefficient of determination (R2) for the KNN and M5 models were 0.97 and 0.93, respectively. The RMSE were 0.55 and 0.87, for the same two models, respectively, and the value of the KGE were 0.99, 0.96, respectively.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Decision tree M5
  • Gamma test
  • Gupta Index
  • k- nearest neighbor
  • river discharge

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سابقه مقاله

  • تاریخ دریافت: 08 تیر 1396
  • تاریخ بازنگری: 14 اسفند 1396
  • تاریخ پذیرش: 11 اردیبهشت 1397

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