شناسایی مناطق مستعد سیل‌گیری و تعیین مهم‌ترین عامل‌های مؤثر بر وقوع آن با استفاده از مدل بیشینه‌ی بی‌نظمی در آبخیز تشان خوزستان

داودی مقدم, داود; حقی زاده, علی

doi:10.22092/wmej.2020.341563.1307

شناسایی مناطق مستعد سیل‌گیری و تعیین مهم‌ترین عامل‌های مؤثر بر وقوع آن با استفاده از مدل بیشینه‌ی بی‌نظمی در آبخیز تشان خوزستان

نوع مقاله : پژوهشی

نویسندگان

¹ دانشجوی دکتری گروه آبخیزداری، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه لرستان، خرم آباد، ایران

² دانشیار گروه آبخیزداری، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه لرستان، خرم آباد، ایران

10.22092/wmej.2020.341563.1307

چکیده

یکی از مهم‌ترین اقدام‌ها در مدیریت سیلاب تهیه‌یِ نقشه‌یِ حساسیت سیل‌گیری است. هدف از این پژوهش شناسایی منطقه‌های مستعد سیل‌گیری با مدل بیشینه‌ی بی‌نظمی در آبخیز تشان خوزستان است. نقشه‌یِ پراکنش سیل‌گیری‌ها تهیه شد و از کل 169 موقعیت سیل‌گیری 70% برای واسنجی مدل و 30% برای اعتبارسنجی به‌کار برده شد. از 10 عامل مؤثر در سیل‌گیری (ارتفاع، جهت شیب، فاصله از آبراه، تراکم زه‌کشی، درجه‌ی شیب، کاربری زمین، فاصله از جاده، شاخص رطوبت پستی‌وبلندی، انحنای تراز و سنگ‌شناسی) بهره‌گرفته شد. روند تأثیر و درصد مشارکت هر یک از ویژگی‌های محیطی در روی‌داد سیل‌گیری با منحنی‌های پاسخ و روش جکنایف بررسی شد. در نهایت، نقشه‌یِ حساسیت سیل‌گیری در چهار طبقه تهیه شد. برای ارزیابی دقت مدل‌سازی انجام‌شده از منحنی تشخیص عمل‌کرد نسبی بهره‌گرفته شد. نتیجه‌ها نشان داد که این مدل دقت بسیار خوبی (0/885AUC=) در شناسایی منطقه‌های مستعد سیل‌گیری دارد، و عامل‌های کاربری زمین و فاصله از جاده با 50/5% و 20/6% مشارکت بیش‌ترین تأثیر را در روی‌داد سیل‌گیری‌ها داشت. حدود 25% از مساحت آبخیز نسبت به روی‌داد سیل‌گیری‌ حساسیت زیاد و خیلی زیاد دارد. با توجه به دقت پیش‌بینی بسیار خوب الگوریتم بیشینه‌ی بی‌نظمی در شناسایی منطقه‌های بحرانی و حساس به سیل‌گرفتگی، توصیه می‌شود از این مدل برای تهیه‌یِ نقشه‌یِ حساسیت سیل‌گیری سایر آبخیزها به‌خصوص منطقه‌هایی که ایستگاه‌های آب‌سنجی ندارد بهره‌گرفته ‌‌شود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Detection of Susceptible Areas to Flooding and its Most Important Contributing Factors Using the Maximum Entropy Model in the Tashan Watershed, Khuzestan

نویسندگان [English]

Davoud Davoudi Moghaddam ¹
Ali Haghizadeh ²

¹ Ph.D. Candidate, Department of Watershed Management, Faculty of Agriculture, Lorestan University, Khorramabad, Iran

² Associate Professor, Department of Watershed Management, Faculty of Agriculture, Lorestan University, Khorramabad, Iran

چکیده [English]

One of the most important measures for flood management is the preparation of a flood susceptibility map. The purpose of this study was to identify susceptible areas to flooding using the maximum entropy model in the Tashan Watershed, Khuzestan Province. A flood inventory map was prepared for statistical analysis. Of the 169 flooding occurrences, 70% were used for the model calibration and 30% were used for validation. Ten flooding factors, namely: altitude, slope aspect, distance from the river, drainage density, slope angle, land use, distance from the road, topographic wetness index, plan curvature and lithology were used. The effect and contribution of each environmental parameter were calculated using the response curves and the Jackknife method. Finally, a flooding susceptibility map was prepared in four classes. The receiver operating characteristic curve was used to evaluate the accuracy of modeling. The results indicated that the maximum entropy model had very good accuracy (AUC=0.885) in identifying the prone areas to flooding, and the land use and distance from the road with 50.5% and 20.6% contribution, respectively, had the most impact on the occurrence of flood inundation. Also, about 25% of the watershed area was highly sensitive to flooding. Regarding very good prediction accuracy of the maximum entropy model in detecting susceptible areas to flooding, it is recommended to apply this model for the preparation of the flooding map in other watersheds, especially areas lucking hydrometric stations.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

Flooding management
machine learning
maximum entropy
the Tashan Watershed
validation

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