ارزیابی کارایی مدل گردش عمومی CanESM2 و مدل منطقه ای REMO به منظور پیش بینی تغییرات ویژگی های اقلیمی در آبخیز جازموریان

نوع مقاله : پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار گروه مهندسی طبیعت، دانشکده منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه جیرفت

2 دکترای تخصصی بیابانزدایی، دانشکده منابع طبیعی دانشگاه تهران

چکیده

گرم­شدن سیاره­ی زمین به­دلیل افزایش تغییر در بارندگی و دما بر دست‌رسی به منابع آب، به­ویژه در منطقه‌های خشک، اثری جدی دارد. مدل­های اقلیمی گردش عمومی جو (GCM) و منطقه­یی (RCM) ابزار اصلی ارزیابی تغییر ویژگی­های اقلیمی در آینده است. متفاوت­بودن تفکیک مکانی این مدل­ها سبب اختلاف در نتیجه‌های ارزیابی تغییر ویژگی­های اقلیمی می­شود. ازاین­رو در این پژوهش کارآیی مدل بزرگ‌ مقیاس CanESM2 و مدل منطقه‌یی REMO در آبخیز جازموریان با کاربرد معیارهای آماری ارزیابی شد. نتیجه‌ها نشان داد که مدل CanESM2 عمل‌کرد بهتری از مدل منطقه­یی REMO برای پیش­بینی ویژگی‌های اقلیمی دارد. شبیه­سازی ویژگی­های اقلیمی برپایه‌ی مدل CanESM2 نشان داد که بارندگی در حالت‌های ممکن RCP2.6، RCP4.5 و RCP8.5 به ‎ترتیب 19/23، 18/55 و 14/55 میلی­متر در ایستگاه ایرانشهر و در ایستگاه بم 8/31، 10/66 و 15/72 میلی­متر نسبت به دوره­ی مشاهده کاهش خواهد یافت. میانگین مقادیر شبیه­سازی شده‌ی دما در حالت‌های ممکن پژوهش نشان داد که دمای متوسط در ایستگاه ایرانشهر به­ ترتیب 1/57، 2/15 و 3/1 درجه­ی سانتی­گراد و در ایستگاه بم 1/84، 2/31 و 3/35 درجه­ی سانتی­گراد نسبت به دوره­ی مشاهده افزایش خواهد یافت. به­ طورکلی نتیجه‌های پیش­بینی ویژگی­های بارندگی و دمای متوسط در آبخیز جازموریان نشان داد که احتمال وقوع دوره­های خشک طولانی­تر در آینده نسبت به دوره­ی مشاهده در این منطقه افزایش خواهد یافت. ازاین­رو اطلاع از روند تغییر ویژگی­های اقلیمی می­تواند به مدیران و برنامه­ریزان در دادن راه‌کار­های لازم برای شرایط تغییر اقلیم آینده کمک کند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Performance Evaluation of the CanESM2 Global Circulation Model and the REMO Regional Model to Predict Changes of Climatic Parameters in the Jazmourian Watershed

نویسندگان [English]

  • Zohre Ebrahimi Khusfi 1
  • Maryam Mirakbari 2
1 Assistant Professor, Department of Natural Science, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Jiroft, Jiroft, Iran
2 PhD, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

Global warming has a serious impact on access to water resources, especially in arid regions due to changes in rainfall and temperature. The Global Circulation Models (GCM) and the Regional Climate Models (RCM) have been considered as the main tools for assessing changes in climatic variables in the future. The difference in the spatial resolution of these models causes the different results in climate change assessment. The performance of the CanESM2 and REMO models was evaluated using statistical criteria in the Jazmourian Watershed. The results indicated that the CanESM2 has performed better than the REMO regional model for predicting climatic parameters. Climate parameter simulation based on the CanESM2 model showed that precipitation will decrease under the RCP scenarios (RCP2., RCP4.5, RCP8.5) by 19.23, 18.55, 14.55 mm, respectively at the Iranshahr Station and 8.31, 10.6, 15.72 mm, respectively at the Bam Station. The mean projected temperature based on the RCP scenarios showed that temperature will increase by 1.57, 2.15 and 3.1 ºC at the Iranshahr Station and 1.84, 2.31 and 3.35 ºC at Bam station under RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. Generally, the finding of simulated precipitation and temperature in the Jazmourian Watershed showed that the long dry periods is more likely to occur in the future as compared to the historical period. Hence, knowing the trend of the changes in climatic variables can help managers and planners to provide required strategies under the future climate change conditions.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Changes Trend
  • Jazmourian
  • Large-scale model
  • Mann- Kendall
  • Regional Model

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  • تاریخ دریافت: 16 دی 1398
  • تاریخ بازنگری: 14 خرداد 1399
  • تاریخ پذیرش: 30 شهریور 1399

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