ارزیابی تغییر اقلیم در آبخیز طشک به‌روش مدل‌سازی و پیش‌بینی حالت‌های ممکن

نوع مقاله : پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکترای مدیریت محیط زیست، گروه مدیریت محیط زیست، واحد تهران شمال، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران

2 استادیار علوم محیط زیست، گروه مدیریت محیط زیست، واحد تهران شمال، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران

3 دانشیار لیمنولوژی، مرکز تحقیقات و آموزش کشاورزی و منابع‌طبیعی فارس، سازمان تحقیقات، آموزش، و ترویج کشاورزی،‌ شیراز، ایران

چکیده

تأثیر تغییر اقلیم بر دریاچه‌ها یکی از مهم‌ترین دشواری‌هایی است که انسان امروزین با آن روبه‌رو است. افزایش دما، آب شدن یخ‌ها در قطب شمال، و ناپدیدشدن ورقه‌های یخ در قطب جنوب از اثرهای تغییر اقلیم در کره‌ی زمین است. این پژوهش روند تغییر سنجه‌های اقلیمی را در آبخیز طشک در دوره‌ی 1990-2020 ارزیابی کرد. از آزمون من-کندال در افزونه‌ی XLSTAT نرم­افزار اکسل بهره گرفته شد. با خروجی canESM2 که یکی از مدل‌های تغییر اقلیم جفت‌شده‌ی CMIP5 است، و برپایه‌ی حالت‌های ممکن RCP 2.6 و RCP4.5 و RCP8.5 تغییر دما در بازه‌ی 1990-2020-2100 بر پایه‌ی داده‌های ایستگاه هم‌دید آباده طشک ارزیابی شد. نتیجه‌ نشان داد که در 30 سال گذشته تغییر روند بارش معنی­دار بود، ولی تغییر دما و تبخیر معنی­دار نبود. نتیجه‌ی پیش‌بینی حالت‌های ممکن برای آینده نشان داد که میانگین بیشینه‌ی دما در سه حالت بررسی‌شده افزایش می‌یابد. از آن‌جا که روند کلی افزایش دما افزایشی بود، می‌توان نتیجه گرفت که روند تغیر اقلیم در تراز آبخیز جدی است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Evaluation of Climate Change in the Tashk River Basin with Emphasis on the Modeling and Scenario Making

نویسندگان [English]

  • Siavash Mohammadi Bigdeli 1
  • Saeed Malmasi 2
  • Mozhgan Zaeemdar 2
  • Mehrdad Zamanpoore 3
1 Ph.D. student in Department of Environmental Management, North Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran
2 Assistant Professor, Department of Environmental Management, North Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran
3 Associate Professor, Department of Hydrobiology, Fars Agricultural and Natural Resources Research and Education Center, Agricultural Research, Education and Extension Organization, Shiraz, Iran
چکیده [English]

Climate change in lakes and reservoirs is one of the most critical issues facing human society today. Rising temperatures, melting ice in the North Pole, and the disappearance of ice sheets in Antarctica are some of the effects of climate change on earth. The present study intends to evaluate the trend of climate parameter changes in Abadeh Tashk station in Tashk catchment area using the Mann-Kendall test and using canESM2 output, one of the paired climate change models 1CMIP5 based on RCP 2.6 scenarios. And RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 to evaluate temperature changes in the period 1990-2020-2100 temperature changes in Abadeh Tashk station. The results showed that the decreasing trend of precipitation is significant but the temperature and evaporation trends are not significant. Scenario results showed that the average maximum temperature in the three scenarios for the study period will increase. Given that the general trend of rising temperatures is on the rise, it can be said that the trend of climate change in the basin is serious.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Can ESM2
  • climate change
  • Mann-Kendall test
  • scenario
  • making
  • Tashk catchment

مراجع

Abbasi H, Delavar M, Bigdeli N. 2019. Assessing the effects of climate change on the sustainability of water resources in watersheds using water footprint indices. Iranian Water Resources Research, 15 (4): 259–272. (In Persian).
ABBASI H, DELAVAR M, Bigdeli Naalbandan R. 2020. Evaluation of the effects of climate change on water resource sustainability in basins using water footprint scarcity indicators. Iran-Water Resources Research, 15(4): 259–272.
AghaKouchak A, Norouzi H, Madani K, Mirchi A, Azarderakhsh M, Nazemi A, Nasrollahi N, Farahmand A, Mehran A, Hasanzadeh E. 2015. Aral Sea syndrome desiccates Lake Urmia: Call for action, Journal of Great Lakes Research. 41 (1): 307–311.
babaeian E, nagafineik Z, zabolabasi F, habeibei M, Adab H, malbisei S. (2009). Climate change assessment over Iran during 2010–2039 by using statistical downscaling of ECHO- G Model. Geography and Development Iranian Journal, 7(16): 135–152. (In Persian).
Boomabad Consulting Engineers. 2002. Bakhtegan Wetland Master Plan. (In Persian).
Charron I. 2014. A guidebook on climate scenarios: Using climate information to guide adaptation research and decisions. Consortium on Regional Climatology and Adaptation to Climate Change. Ouranos, Montreal.
Dobler C, Bürger G, Stötter J. 2012. Assessment of climate change impacts on flood hazard potential in the Alpine Lech Watershed. Journal of Hydrology. pp. 29–39.
Hejazizadeh Z, Asakereh H, Sayadi F. 2016. Climate change and temporal-spatial distribution of rainfall in Iran. Geography, 14 (50): 33–54. (In Persian).
Hesami A, Amini A. 2016. Changes in irrigated land and agricultural water use in the Lake Urmia Basin. Lake and Reservoir Management. 32 (3):288–296.
Imani S, Farokhnia A, Morid S, Roozbahani R. 2021. Spatio-temporal analysis of temperature and precipitation trends in Tashk-Bakhtegan Watershed. Amirkabir Journal of Civil Engineering, 52(11): 1–13.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). 2012. Summary for policymakers. Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation. A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press. Cambridge. UK. and New York. NY. USA. pp.  1–19.
Jahanbakhsh S, Hadiani M, Rezaei B, Dinpajooh Y. 2010. Modeling of climate change parameters in Mazandaran Province. 4th International Congress of Geographers of the Islamic World. Zahedan.  Iran. (In Persian).
Karamouz M, Fallahi M, Nazif S, Rahimi Farahani M. 2009. Long lead rainfall prediction using statistical downscaling and artificial neural network modeling. Journal of Sharif University of Technology. 16 (2): 165–171.
Kendall G. 1975. Rank correlation methods. Charles Graffin. London.
Li H, Mao D, Li X, Wang Z, Wang C. 2019. Monitoring 40–year lake area changes of the Qaidam Basin. Tibetan Plateau. Using Landsat Time Series. Remote Sens. 11(3): 343.
Madani F, Madani L, Jahani D. 2012. A study of climate change in Ardabil Province and its effects on drought. The Third National Conference on Comprehensive Water Resources Management. Sari. (In Persian).
Mann HB.1945. Non-parametric tests against trend. Econometrica 13 (3): 245–259.
Mazidi A, Kamaneh A, Narangi Fard M, Ebrahimi R. 2016. Investigation of the future equilibrium structure of temperature thermometers in the watershed of Tashk. Bakhtegan and Maharloo Lakes using EH5OM model. Wetland Eco Biology. 8(4): 45–62. (In Persian).
Meenu R, Rehana S, Mujumdar P. 2012. Assessment of hydrologic impacts of climate change in Tunga– Bhadra River Basin, India with HEC-HMS and SDSM. Hydrological Processes. 27 (11): 92–20.
Mohammadi S, Mehdi N, Amiraslani H. 2010. Investigation of the effects of climate change on meteorological and hydrological parameters of the catchment. The First National Conference on Applied Research in Iranian Water Resources. pp. 23–21. (In Persian).
Panahi A, Khorramabadi F. 1399. Evaluation of accuracy of CSIRO data and LARS-WG model in simulation of climatic variables of East Azerbaijan Province. Climate Change and Hazards, 1 (2): 139–163. (In Persian).
Pekel JF, Cottam A, Gorelick N, Belward AS. 2016. High-resolution mapping of global surface water and its long-term changes. Nature. 540 (7633): 418–422.
Taravat A, Rajaei M, Emadodin I, Hasheminejad H, Mousavian R, Biniyaz E. 2017. Primary satellite data sets of Land SAT 8: TM and ETM+ from Iran, Turkey and Armenia. 8 (11): 2015. 
Turgay P, Ercan K. 2005. Trend analysis in Turkish precipitation data. Hydrological Processes 20 (9): 2011–2026.
Wafakhah M, Rajabi Mansour. 2005. The effectiveness of meteorological drought indices for monitoring and evaluation of droughts in the Bakhtegan Lakes Watershed: Tashk Maharloo Biyaban. 10 (2): 369–382. (In Persian).
WMO. 1987. World meteorological congress 10th session. Geneva. Switzerland.
Xu YP, Zhang X, Tian Y. 2012. Impact of climate change on 24-h design rainfall depth estimation in Qiantang River Basin. East China. Hydrol. Process. 26 (26): 4067–4077.
Zhang G, Xie H, Yao T, Liang T, Kang S. 2012. Snow covers dynamics of four lake basins over Tibetan Plateau using time series MODIS data (2001–2010). Water Resources Research. pp. 1–-22.

فایل ها

سابقه مقاله

  • تاریخ دریافت: 08 تیر 1400
  • تاریخ بازنگری: 24 شهریور 1400
  • تاریخ پذیرش: 27 مهر 1400

هم رسانی

ارجاع به این مقاله

آمار