ارزیابی تغییر اقلیم در آبخیز طشک به‌روش مدل‌سازی و پیش‌بینی حالت‌های ممکن

نوع مقاله : پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکترای مدیریت محیط زیست، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران شمال

2 استادیار علوم محیط زیست، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران شمال

3 دانشیار لیمنولوژی، مرکز تحقیقات و آموزش کشاورزی و منابع‌طبیعی فارس، سازمان تحقیقات، آموزش، و ترویج کشاورزی،‌ شیراز، ایران

چکیده

تأثیر تغییر اقلیم بر دریاچه‌ها یکی از مهم‌ترین دشواری‌هایی است که انسان امروزین با آن روبه‌رو است. افزایش دما، آب شدن یخ‌ها در قطب شمال، و ناپدیدشدن ورقه‌های یخ در قطب جنوب از اثرهای تغییر اقلیم در کره‌ی زمین است. این پژوهش روند تغییر سنجه‌های اقلیمی را در آبخیز طشک در دوره‌ی 1990-2020 ارزیابی کرد. از آزمون من-کندال در افزونه‌ی XLSTAT نرم­افزار اکسل بهره گرفته شد. با خروجی canESM2 که یکی از مدل‌های تغییر اقلیم جفت‌شده‌ی CMIP5 است، و برپایه‌ی حالت‌های ممکن RCP 2.6 و RCP4.5 و RCP8.5 تغییر دما در بازه‌ی 1990-2020-2100 بر پایه‌ی داده‌های ایستگاه هم‌دید آباده طشک ارزیابی شد. نتیجه‌ نشان داد که در 30 سال گذشته تغییر روند بارش معنی­دار بود، ولی تغییر دما و تبخیر معنی­دار نبود. نتیجه‌ی پیش‌بینی حالت‌های ممکن برای آینده نشان داد که میانگین بیشینه‌ی دما در سه حالت بررسی‌شده افزایش می‌یابد. از آن‌جا که روند کلی افزایش دما افزایشی بود، می‌توان نتیجه گرفت که روند تغیر اقلیم در تراز آبخیز جدی است.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Evaluation of Climate Change in the Tashk River Basin with Emphasis on the Modeling and Scenario Making

نویسندگان [English]

  • Siavash Mohammadi Bigdeli 1
  • Saeed Malmasi 2
  • Mozhgan Zaeemdar 2
  • Mehrdad Zamanpoore 3
1 PhD student in Environmental Management, Islamic Azad University, North Tehran
2 Assistant Professor of Environmental Management, Islamic Azad University, North Tehran
3 Associate Professor of Hydrobiology, Fars Agricultural and Natural Resources Research and Education Center, Agricultural Research, Education and Extension Organization, Shiraz, Iran
چکیده [English]

Climate change in lakes and reservoirs is one of the most critical issues facing human society today. Rising temperatures, melting ice in the North Pole, and the disappearance of ice sheets in Antarctica are some of the effects of climate change on earth. The present study intends to evaluate the trend of climate parameter changes in Abadeh Tashk station in Tashk catchment area using the Mann-Kendall test and using canESM2 output, one of the paired climate change models 1CMIP5 based on RCP 2.6 scenarios. And RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 to evaluate temperature changes in the period 1990-2020-2100 temperature changes in Abadeh Tashk station. The results showed that the decreasing trend of precipitation is significant but the temperature and evaporation trends are not significant. Scenario results showed that the average maximum temperature in the three scenarios for the study period will increase. Given that the general trend of rising temperatures is on the rise, it can be said that the trend of climate change in the basin is serious.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Can ESM2
  • climate change
  • Mann-Kendall test
  • scenario
  • making
  • Tashk catchment
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