تغییر مکانی و زمانی تراز ‌ایست آبی زیرزمینی در آبخوان دشت مشگین، استان اردبیل

نوع مقاله : پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار گروه مرتع و آبخیزداری، پژوهشکده مدیریت آب، دانشکده کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه محقق اردبیلی، اردبیل

2 دکترای ژئومورفولوژی، دانشگاه محقق اردبیلی، اردبیل

چکیده

این پژوهش با هدف آگاهی از تغییر زمانی و مکانی تراز آب زیرزمینی در آبخوان دشت مشگین در استان اردبیل بر پایه‌ی تحلیل‌‌های آمار فضایی و وایازی (رگرسیون) زمانی و با داده‌‌های ژرفای آب زیرزمینی در مقیاس سالانه در 20 چاه نمونه در دهه‌ی 1395-1386 انجام شد. برای دست‌یابی به روش بهینه‌ی پهنه‌بندیِ تغییرهای مکانی تراز آب زیرزمینی از مقایسه‌ی روش‌های گوناگون درون‌یابی مانند تابع‌های شعاعی پایه، وزن‌دهی معکوس فاصله و کریجینگ بر پایه‌ی اعتبارسنجی متقاطع بهره‌گیری شد. رابطه‌های وایازی میان تراز آب زیرزمینی و سال‌‌های بررسی، برای شناخت شیوه‌ی افزایش و کاهش مجموعه‌ی زمانی داده‌‌ها برازش داده شدند. نتیجه‌ی مقایسه‌ی روش‌‌های درون‌یابی بر پایه‌ی اعتبارسنجی متقاطع نشان داد که ریشه‌ی دوم میانگین مربع‌های خطا به‌دست‌آمده از کاربرد روش‌‌های تابع‌های شعاعی پایه، وزن‌دهی معکوس فاصله و کریجینگ به‌ترتیب 21/98، 22/85 و 22/57 در 1386، و 23/45، 27/88 و 26/25 در 1395 بود. بنابراین، به‌دلیل توان به‌کار برده‌شده بر داده‌های پراکنده، و کم بودن جا‌های نمونه‌برداری در هر دو سال، خطای برآورد روش تابع شعاعی پایه کم‌ترین بود، و روش بهینه‌ی برآورد تراز آب زیرزمینی در آبخوان دشت مشگین دانسته شد. میانگین وزنی افت در کل آبخوان در این دهه نُه متر محاسبه شد. افزون بر این، نقشه‌ی هم‌افت تراز آب زیرزمینی نشان‌گر کاهش تراز آب زیرزمینی در نیمه‌ی غربی، و افزایش آن در نیمه‌ی شرقی آبخوان بود، که با عامل‌های انسانی (برداشت آب از چاه‌ها در زمین‌های کشاورزی) مرتبط است. در مجموع به‌نظر می‌رسد که دقت و کارآیی روش‌های درون‌یابی به ویژگی‌های منطقه و داده‌های بررسی‌شده بستگی دارد. در آبخوان دشت مشگین، بیش‌تر بودن تخلیه از تغذیه در افت‌وخیزهای سالانه‌ی تراز آب زیرزمینی مؤثر بوده است. بنابراین، برقرار کردن توازن میان الگوی کشت و آبیاری، و الگوی تغییر زمانی-مکانی تراز آب زیرزمینی در طرح‌های مدیریت آبخوان دشت مشگین ضروری است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Spatio-Temporal Variations of Groundwater Level in Meshgin Plain Aquifer, Ardabil Province

نویسندگان [English]

  • Zeinab Hazbavi 1
  • Morteza Gherachorlo 2
1 Assistant Professor, Department of Watershed Management, Water Management Research Center, Faculty of Agriculture and Natural Resources, University of Mohaghegh Ardabili, Ardabil, Iran
2 Ph.D., Geomorphology, University of Mohaghegh Ardabili, Ardabil, Iran
چکیده [English]

This study was conducted with the aim of understanding the temporal and spatial variations of groundwater levels in the Meshgin Plain Aquifer, located in Ardabil Province, with the application of spatial statistics and temporal regression and using groundwater depth data on an annual scale from 2007 to 2016. In order to achieve the optimal method of zoning spatial changes in groundwater level, a comparison of different interpolation methods including Radial Basis Functions (RBFs), Inverse Distance Weighted (IDW), and Kriging (KRG) based on cross-validation was used. In addition, regression relationships between groundwater level and the study years were fitted to determine how the data series ascended or descended. A comparison of interpolation methods based on cross-validation showed that the root mean square error (RMSE) of RBF, IDW, and KRG methods were 21.98, 22.85, 22.57 in 2007; and 23.45, 27.88, 26.25 in 2016, respectively. Therefore, the RBF method with the lowest estimation error due to the power applied to scattered data and low sampling points in both years was selected as the optimal method for estimation of groundwater level in the aquifer. The weighted average of groundwater table loss was calculated as equal to nine meters. Furthermore, the iso-decline map of groundwater level was indicative of a decrease in groundwater level in the western half and its increase in the eastern half of the aquifer which is related to anthropogenic factors (withdrawal of groundwater in agricultural lands). In general, it can be stated that the accuracy and efficiency of interpolation methods depend on the region and data characteristics. In the case of Meshgin Plain Aquifer, the discharge factor has been more effective than the recharge factor in annual fluctuations of groundwater level. Accordingly, it is necessary to establish a balance between the pattern of cultivation and irrigation and the pattern of spatio-temporal variations of groundwater level in managerial plans for Meshgin Plain Aquifer.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Groundwater resources
  • interpolation methods
  • Meshghin Plain
  • regression
  • spatial distribution
  • variability

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سابقه مقاله

  • تاریخ دریافت: 22 مهر 1400
  • تاریخ بازنگری: 25 آبان 1400
  • تاریخ پذیرش: 28 آبان 1400

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